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Fly · 5 rounds · title fight
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
17-2-0

Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30-6-0
Won 5 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last KO v Tatsuro Taira
Won 4 of 5
Last DEC v Joshua Van
Our pick

Joshua Van
to win on the cards
Solid call · 65%
Van's striking volume is the angle here. He's fresher, busier, and on a five-fight run against a grappler nine months out. I'm backing the champ on the cards. Pantoja's takedown threat and reach edge could flip it if Van eats too much damage early.
Van's speed and busy hands have the room leaning his way, same as us. The debate keeps circling back to whether Pantoja can drag this to the mat and grind it out.
The room is basically where we are, split but tilted toward Van, and for good reason given how sharp he's looked. For Pantoja to prove everyone wrong here he needs the takedown battle to go his way early and often, which is the one part of Van's game that still hasn't been properly stress tested.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Most writers keep landing on the same question of whether Pantoja can get Van down and control him there, because that's the one place Van hasn't been fully tested.
That grappling question is exactly why we've got this as a solid call and not a stroll, since the takedown battle is Van's one live weakness.
A good chunk of opinion leans Van's way off the back of his composed, come-from-behind win over a live grappler in Tatsuro Taira, seen as proof he's rounded out his defence.
The Taira win is doing a lot of work for us too, that composed comeback against a live grappler is the clearest sign yet Van's defence has actually grown up.
People genuinely disagree on whether time out with injury combined with Pantoja getting older has taken the edge off him, some reckon he's past his peak while others say the miles in his legs make up for it.
How much Pantoja's layoff and age have actually taken off him is something we can't see clearly from here, and if he's still got real legs under him that changes our read.
Some talk has turned personal, with pointed comments from Pantoja about not being beaten "as a man" adding an edge that people think has gotten to Van.
We don't buy that the trash talk has gotten into Van's head, he's shown nothing but composure under pressure so far and there's no reason to think words change that now.
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Joshua Van wins by KO 19%, by submission 8%, on the cards 38%. Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO 10%, by submission 8%, on the cards 18%.
The model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
Green favours Joshua Van, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
How each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Joshua Van
Alexandre Pantoja
3 round fights
Joshua Van
6 of 9 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Alexandre Pantoja
7 of 12 to the cards · 4 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Joshua Van
1 of 2 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Alexandre Pantoja
5 of 6 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.