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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Welter · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Striker
Daniil Donchenko
15-2-0
Balanced
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
13-4-0
WWW
Won 3 of 3
Last KO v Theodor Berggren
WWWWL
Won 4 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last DEC v Ramiz Brahimaj
Our pick
Daniil Donchenko
to get it done inside the distance
MethodKO/TKORound1Finish60%
Strong call · 76%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Donchenko's striking pace should overwhelm Soriano early. The striking exchanges decide this one, and Donchenko's busier hands give him a clear edge. Expect a stoppage. Soriano's only real path is to drag this to the ground, but Donchenko's hard to take down.
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Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Donchenko 76%How it ends24% Soriano
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO 40%, by submission 6%, on the cards 30%. Punahele Soriano wins by KO 7%, by submission 3%, on the cards 15%.
The distanceJudges 45%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~10 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Younger man
- Busier striker
- Harder to take down
- Takes less damage
- Gives up the takedown battle
- 1.0in reach deficit
Factor breakdown
Age
Striking volume
Takedowns conceded
Damage absorbed
Stance matchup
Experience
Takedowns landed
Reach
Green favours Daniil Donchenko, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
8.07Strikes landed / min4.60
2.80Strikes absorbed / min3.44
2.30Knockdowns / 15 min0.84
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.14
Grappling
0.58Takedowns / 15 min1.83
0.58Takedowns conceded / 152.96
0.00Sub attempts / 15 min0.14
Finishing
67%Wins by finish43%
0%Losses by finish25%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Daniil Donchenko
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Punahele Soriano
Career11 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Daniil Donchenko
1 of 2 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Punahele Soriano
8 of 12 to the cards · 4 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Daniil Donchenko
0 of 1 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Punahele Soriano
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 11"Height5' 11"
71"Reach72"
25Age33
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
On scheduleLayoff6 months out
3UFC fights11
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.