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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
L Heavy · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Grappler
Oumar Sy
12-2-0
Striker
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-7-0
LWLWW
Won 3 of 5
Last SUB v Ion Cutelaba
WLWWW
Won 4 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last DEC v Christian Edwards
Our pick
Oumar Sy
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish39%
Strong call · 75%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Bukauskas is the sharper striker, but Sy's reach, takedown threat and activity should dominate a three-rounder. Expect a decision for Sy. The risk is Bukauskas landing something flush early and changing the fight.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Sy 75%How it ends25% Bukauskas
Oumar Sy wins by KO 20%, by submission 10%, on the cards 46%. Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO 6%, by submission 2%, on the cards 16%.
The distanceJudges 62%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Takes less damage
- 7.0in reach edge
- Takedown threat
- Younger man
- Busier striker
- Harder to take down
Factor breakdown
Damage absorbed
Reach
Takedowns landed
Age
Knockdowns absorbed
Experience
Striking volume
Takedowns conceded
Green favours Oumar Sy, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
3.41Strikes landed / min3.14
1.87Strikes absorbed / min3.86
0.00Knockdowns / 15 min0.11
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.57
Grappling
2.45Takedowns / 15 min0.23
0.35Takedowns conceded / 150.57
0.35Sub attempts / 15 min0.11
Finishing
67%Wins by finish50%
50%Losses by finish80%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Oumar Sy
Career5 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Modestas Bukauskas
Career13 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Oumar Sy
2 of 5 to the cards · 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Modestas Bukauskas
5 of 13 to the cards · 6 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 4"Height6' 3"
83"Reach76"
30Age32
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
5UFC fights13
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.