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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Middle · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Balanced
Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
16-6-0
Balanced
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
15-4-0
LWWWL
Won 3 of 5
Last DEC v Brendan Allen
LLWWW
Won 3 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last DEC v Ikram Aliskerov
Our pick
Edmen Shahbazyan
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish48%
Slight lean · 61%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Shahbazyan's the busier striker with a reach advantage, and he's harder to put on his back. Ferreira's a capable grappler but the younger man should control the pace and take this on the cards. It goes the distance. The risk is Shahbazyan eats too much in the process.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usShahbazyan 62%38%
Shahbazyan's got the reach and the legs to fight this one at range and pick Ferreira off from the outside. The worry that keeps popping up is Ferreira's one-punch power turning it into a short night regardless.
The room's landed exactly where we did, leaning on the same height and distance edge that got us there in the first place.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup15 mentions
The recurring take is that Shahbazyan's height and reach give him the tools to fight at distance and pick Ferreira apart if he can keep the fight there.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
This is the exact shape of our call, Shahbazyan using his reach to fight at range is the whole plan.
Matchup10 mentions
Plenty of scribes reckon Ferreira only has to land one good shot early doors to put a bloke away, seeing as so many of his victories were done and dusted inside round one.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We already flagged Shahbazyan takes more damage than he should, and Ferreira's early finishing habit is precisely why we've got this as a lean and not a stroll.
Form20 mentions
Both blokes just dropped decisions on the judges' cards, so punters reckon this one's less about anyone being in form and more about who can bounce back quickest.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
Both coming off a loss cuts both ways and doesn't tip our read either direction, so it sits outside what actually decided our call.
Talk8 mentions
Fan sentiment looks close to a genuine toss-up, with community voting only lightly favouring Shahbazyan over Ferreira.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
A near coin flip in the stands lines up with us calling this a slight lean rather than a certainty.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Shahbazyan 61%How it ends39% Ferreira
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO 22%, by submission 8%, on the cards 32%. Brunno Ferreira wins by KO 13%, by submission 5%, on the cards 20%.
The distanceJudges 52%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~10 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Younger man
- Busier striker
- 2.0in reach edge
- Harder to take down
- Takedown threat
- Absorbs more damage
Factor breakdown
Age
Striking volume
Reach
Damage absorbed
Finishing rate
Takedowns conceded
Experience
Knockdowns absorbed
Green favours Edmen Shahbazyan, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
3.93Strikes landed / min3.12
3.85Strikes absorbed / min3.70
0.84Knockdowns / 15 min0.61
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.20
Grappling
1.43Takedowns / 15 min1.02
2.27Takedowns conceded / 152.46
0.36Sub attempts / 15 min0.61
Finishing
67%Wins by finish83%
67%Losses by finish75%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
⚡
FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Edmen Shahbazyan
Career15 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Brunno Ferreira
Career10 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Edmen Shahbazyan
5 of 16 to the cards · 9 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Brunno Ferreira
2 of 11 to the cards · 8 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 2"Height5' 10"
74"Reach72"
28Age33
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
15UFC fights10
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.