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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Feather · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Grappler
Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
21-12-1
Grappler
Felipe Lima
"Jungle Boy"
14-2-0
LWLWL
Won 2 of 5
Last DEC v Melquizael Costa
LWW
Won 2 of 3, 1 as an underdog
Last DEC v Payton Talbott
Our pick
Felipe Lima
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish36%
Slight lean · 57%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Both grapplers, but Lima's harder to take down and takes less damage. He's the younger man too. Back him for a decision. The risk is ring rust after 14 months out, and Charriere could overwhelm him on volume.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Charriere 43%How it ends57% Lima
Morgan Charriere wins by KO 15%, by submission 5%, on the cards 24%. Felipe Lima wins by KO 11%, by submission 10%, on the cards 36%.
The distanceJudges 60%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Takes less damage
- Younger man
- Harder to take down
- Out-struck on volume
- 14 months out
- 1.0in reach deficit
Factor breakdown
Damage absorbed
Age
Striking volume
Finishing rate
Knockdowns absorbed
Reach
Experience
Layoff
Green favours Felipe Lima, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
4.02Strikes landed / min2.86
4.51Strikes absorbed / min2.91
0.88Knockdowns / 15 min0.00
0.59Knockdowns absorbed / 150.00
Grappling
2.06Takedowns / 15 min2.18
0.59Takedowns conceded / 150.36
0.29Sub attempts / 15 min0.73
Finishing
100%Wins by finish50%
0%Losses by finish0%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Morgan Charriere
Career6 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Felipe Lima
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Morgan Charriere
3 of 6 to the cards · 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Felipe Lima
2 of 3 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 8"Height5' 6"
69"Reach68"
30Age28
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
9 months outLayoff1.2 years out
6UFC fights3
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.