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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Heavy · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
#12Grappler
Mario Pinto
12-0-0
#15Balanced
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-11-0
WWW
Won 3 of 3, 1 as an underdog
Last DEC v Felipe Franco
WWLWL
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Marcus Buchecha
Our pick
Mario Pinto
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish49%
Strong call · 73%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Back Pinto on the cards. He's the unbeaten grappler here, tougher to take down and fresher than Spann, who's absorbed more mileage across a longer career. A decision feels most likely and sits in Pinto's favour. The one thing that could spoil it is if Spann overwhelms him on volume strikes before Pinto gets his wrestling going.
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Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Pinto 73%How it ends27% Spann
Mario Pinto wins by KO 22%, by submission 14%, on the cards 37%. Ryan Spann wins by KO 8%, by submission 5%, on the cards 14%.
The distanceJudges 51%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~10 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Younger man
- Takes less damage
- Harder to take down
- Takedown threat
- Out-struck on volume
Factor breakdown
Age
Damage absorbed
Takedowns conceded
Experience
Striking volume
Takedowns landed
Finishing rate
Win rate
Green favours Mario Pinto, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
2.55Strikes landed / min3.08
1.81Strikes absorbed / min3.85
0.50Knockdowns / 15 min0.91
0.50Knockdowns absorbed / 150.61
Grappling
2.52Takedowns / 15 min1.22
0.00Takedowns conceded / 151.97
1.01Sub attempts / 15 min1.52
Finishing
67%Wins by finish80%
0%Losses by finish83%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Mario Pinto
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Ryan Spann
Career16 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Mario Pinto
1 of 4 to the cards · 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Ryan Spann
3 of 17 to the cards · 14 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Mario Pinto
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Ryan Spann
0 of 1 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 5"Height6' 5"
79"Reach79"
28Age35
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
3UFC fights16
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.