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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Middle · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
#8Balanced
Michael Page
"Venom"
25-3-0
#15Balanced
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
37-9-2
WWWLW
Won 4 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last DEC v Sam Patterson
WWWLW
Won 4 of 5
Last SUB v Andrey Pulyaev
Our pick
Too close to call
Model splits it 53-47. Not enough between them to name a winner.
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Page's reach and durability versus Ruziboev's youth and takedown threat makes this genuinely even. The distance looks more likely than a stoppage either way. If this goes to the cards, you're flipping a coin.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Friday night, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Page 47%How it ends53% Ruziboev
Michael Page wins by KO 9%, by submission 5%, on the cards 33%. Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO 18%, by submission 6%, on the cards 29%.
The distanceJudges 62%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
Age
Damage absorbed
Finishing rate
Reach
Takedowns conceded
Takedowns landed
Knockdowns absorbed
Striking volume
Green favours Nursulton Ruziboev, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
2.15Strikes landed / min2.38
1.57Strikes absorbed / min2.68
0.00Knockdowns / 15 min1.02
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.34
Grappling
0.00Takedowns / 15 min1.36
1.20Takedowns conceded / 152.04
0.00Sub attempts / 15 min0.34
Finishing
0%Wins by finish80%
0%Losses by finish0%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Michael Page
Career5 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Nursulton Ruziboev
Career6 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Michael Page
5 of 5 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Nursulton Ruziboev
2 of 6 to the cards · 4 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 3"Height6' 5"
79"Reach76"
39Age32
SwitchStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
5UFC fights6
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.