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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Light · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
#2Grappler
Arman Tsarukyan
"The Batman"
23-3-0
#10Striker
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2-0
WWWWW
Won 5 of 5
Last SUB v Dan Hooker
WWLWW
Won 4 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Michael Chandler
Our pick
Arman Tsarukyan
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish41%
Slight lean · 60%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Tsarukyan's on a five-fight run while Ruffy's trading on the Chandler KO. The grappler takes less damage and controls the ground, but ten months out and a three-inch reach gap are real problems. Lean Tsarukyan to get the decision. Ruffy's knockout power could change everything.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usTsarukyan 68%32%
Everyone sees the same fight, a wrestler trying to smother a striker before the striker finds his range. The real tension is whether Ruffy has actually fixed the grappling gaps or just hidden them well.
The room lines up with us almost exactly, leaning the same way for the same wrestler-versus-striker reasons we did. Where they would be right to worry more than us is if Ruffy truly has closed the grappling holes, because that is the one thing that flips this from a grind into a firefight.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup12 mentions
Most previews frame this as a clean wrestler versus striker puzzle, arguing Tsarukyan wins if he chains takedowns and grinds, but risks getting picked apart if he ever settles into a boxing match.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
That exact chain-takedowns-or-get-picked-apart tension is baked into why we have him edging it rather than strolling it.
Form12 mentions
There is real debate about whether Ruffy has patched the grappling holes exposed in his loss to Saint Denis, with some pointing to his crisp finishes since as proof he has evolved and others still seeing the same vulnera…
FormPicks Response · Could move us
Whether Ruffy has genuinely fixed those grappling holes or just avoided being tested is the one thing we cannot see from here, and it would change our call if it is true.
Fitness8 mentions
A recurring worry is that Tsarukyan has spent so much of the past year on freestyle wrestling mats rather than full MMA camps that his overall sharpness and focus for this fight is an open question, though people close t…
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
The wrestling-mats-not-MMA-camps worry is exactly why our lean is slight rather than strong.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Tsarukyan 60%How it ends40% Ruffy
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO 17%, by submission 8%, on the cards 35%. Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO 20%, by submission 2%, on the cards 18%.
The distanceJudges 53%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Takes less damage
- Takedown threat
- 3.0in reach deficit
- 10 months out
- Little knockdown power
Factor breakdown
Damage absorbed
Takedowns landed
Reach
Finishing rate
Experience
Knockdown power
Striking volume
Age
Green favours Arman Tsarukyan, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
3.85Strikes landed / min4.00
1.80Strikes absorbed / min3.75
0.31Knockdowns / 15 min2.06
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.00
Grappling
3.26Takedowns / 15 min0.00
1.02Takedowns conceded / 151.03
0.10Sub attempts / 15 min0.00
Finishing
40%Wins by finish80%
0%Losses by finish100%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
⚡
FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Arman Tsarukyan
Career12 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Mauricio Ruffy
Career6 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Arman Tsarukyan
7 of 10 to the cards · 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Mauricio Ruffy
1 of 7 to the cards · 5 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Arman Tsarukyan
1 of 2 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Mauricio Ruffy
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 7"Height5' 11"
72"Reach75"
29Age30
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
10 months outLayoffOn schedule
12UFC fights6
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.