Grand Final · M.C.G.Neutral venue
Dockers v Lions
Sat, 26 Sept, 2:30 pm AEST
Line-ballDockers too close to call✗ Missed
💬FormPicks Commentary
Dockers' suffocating defence is the edge here. They're giving up just 72.4 points a game while scoring 99.4, and when they win they do it by an average of 34.2 points. Lions are prolific on attack at 108.7 and have won big when it counts (43.2 point average margin), but Fremantle's scoreboard dominance at 137% should keep them in control for four quarters. Watch whether the Lions can stay tight early, since they thrive in close finishes with four games decided by two goals or less. If this stays within a goal or two at three-quarter time, that's when you find out if Brisbane's forward power can breach that Dockers wall.
What's driving the pick
🧮Factor breakdown
How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, scoring rates, form, the home deck, travel and who is out. Never from betting markets.
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
📌Team tendencies
The habits each side brings into this one, from this season's results.
Dockers
Miserly defence - conceding just 72.4 points a game.
Potent attack - banging on 99.4 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 34.2 points the average winning margin.
Dominant on the scoreboard - 137% and climbing.
Top-four side - sitting 1st on the ladder.
Live in tight games - 8 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Lions
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Potent attack - banging on 108.7 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 41.3 points the average winning margin.
Top-four side - sitting 3rd on the ladder.
Live in tight games - 5 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.
Momentum
Dockers
Lions
Last Game Key Callouts
vLionsvDockersMarks Down 21 on their last 5 average
Clearances Up 14 on their last 5 average
Marks inside 50 Up 6 on their last 5 average
The Meters Behind It
Disposals
Marks
Inside 50s
Marks inside 50
Goal assists
Contested possessions
Clearances
Hitouts
Tackles
Rebound 50s
One percenters
Clangers
Frees against
Full-game team stats harvested after each round. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer clangers and frees against count as better.
🏆Season form guide
DockersLions