NBA Tips & Predictions - Wed 21 - Fri 23 Oct

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Little Caesars Arena has been worth plenty to the Pistons, who went 32-9 in their own building last season, and that is why we lean their way in what is a true 50/50 contest. It is early in the season, so these are last season's figures, and the Pistons gave up 109.6 points a game, 3rd fewest in the league, while the Celtics allowed the fewest at 107.2, so this one may be decided on defence. The thing to watch is Boston's shooting, as they made 15.5 threes a game last season, 3rd most in the league, and they went 26-15 away from home, so if those threes start falling early the home crowd may not be enough.

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Both sides have an ankle concern on the injury report, with Josh Hart questionable for the Knicks and Dean Wade questionable for the 76ers. Even so, we lean Knicks, and it's built on home form - last season they went 31-10 in their own building, and they conceded 110.2 points a game, the 5th fewest in the league. They also out-rebounded opponents by 5.2 a game last season, and when they won they did it by 16.1 points on average, though it's no certainty. The thing to watch is Hart's ankle, since any setback for him would test a side whose strength has been playing at home.

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Last season the Thunder's lock-down defence gave up 107.9 points a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, and that runs straight into a Spurs side that was a fortress at home last season at 32-8 in their own building. That clash is what tilts this toward San Antonio, so we lean Spurs, though it is no certainty. The thing to watch is Oklahoma City's availability, with Chet Holmgren (quadriceps) and Jaylin Williams (heel) both out and Cason Wallace questionable, which could thin that defence in a hurry.

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Atlanta's biggest strength is how much they move the ball, averaging 30.1 assists a game last season, the most in the league, and that is the test for a Magic side that needs to stay organised at Kia Center. When the Hawks win they tend to win big, by 14.6 points on average last season, so if their passing gets going this could open up quickly. We're leaning Magic on home court, but this is a true 50/50, and the thing to watch is Franz Wagner, who is questionable with a shoulder injury.

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Early in the season, so the only form we can point to for the Wizards is from last season, when they finished 17-65, 30th of 30, and dropped ten straight to close it out. They also gave up 124.9 points a game, the 2nd most in the league, and that leaky defence is where the Bucks should look to do their damage. We're leaning Bucks, but this is a true 50/50, and the thing to watch is the Wizards playing at home at Capital One Arena, the one edge they bring into this one.

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Last season the Heat averaged 120.9 points a game, the 2nd most in the league, and that firepower at Kaseya Center is where this game is likely to be decided. The Timberwolves have shown they can win big, by 13.7 points on average last season, but they're without Donte DiVincenzo (out, achilles), which narrows their options. We lean Heat, mainly because they're at home and have the more potent attack, but this isn't a certainty. The thing to watch is Bam Adebayo, who is questionable with a groin issue, along with Pelle Larsson (questionable, illness), because the Heat's edge is strongest with their main scorers fit.

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The Nets have home court at Barclays Center, which is their main reason to think they can hang around. Last season, the Nets scored just 105.9 points a game, the fewest in the league, and won only two of their 14 games decided by five points or fewer, while the Hornets made 16.4 threes a game, the most in the league, and out-rebounded opponents by 6.8, so they get the nod in what is a true coin flip. The thing to watch is the Hornets' injury list, with Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams out and Kon Knueppel and Grayson Allen questionable, because missing rotation players could blunt that rebounding edge.

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The Raptors are the read here, and sharing the ball is the habit that gets them there, with 29.5 assists a game last season, the 3rd most in the league. They also tend to win big when they win, by 15.1 points on average last season, and they get to do it at home in Scotiabank Arena. The Bulls have leaked points, giving up 121.5 a game last season, the 3rd most in the league, so Toronto's ball movement has a clear target. The thing to watch is whether Chicago can slow that ball down, because if they can't, this could turn into the kind of heavy Raptors win they have produced before.

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This is close to a coin flip, but we lean Grizzlies, mainly because they play at home at FedExForum. It is early in the season, so all we have is last season, when the Jazz went just 8-33 on the road and gave up 126 points a game, the most in the league. Memphis finished that year losing eight straight and gave up 120.7 a game, 5th most, so the thing to watch is Utah's ball movement, which averaged 29.6 assists a game last season, 2nd most in the league, and can expose a Grizzlies defence that has been just as leaky.

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The Pacers' leaky defence runs straight into a Pelicans side that does its best work at home, and that's where our lean sits, though it's no certainty. Last season Indiana gave up 120.4 points a game, the 6th most in the league, and they went just 8-33 on the road, so a loud Smoothie King Center crowd is a real test for them. They finished last season 29th of 30 at 19-63, so this is a side still finding its feet. The thing to watch is whether New Orleans can turn this into a half-court contest rather than a track meet, because if the Pacers get out and run, the lean gets harder to hold.

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Houston's home floor has been worth plenty, with the Rockets going 30-11 in their own building last season, and it's early enough that these are last-season figures. We lean Rockets, built on a defence that gave up 110 points a game last season (4th fewest in the league), a habit of out-rebounding opponents by 8.6 a game last season, and wins that came by 13.5 points on average last season. The Mavericks have been poor travellers, just 10-31 on the road last season, and their players ruled out is the thing to watch, so check the final injury report before tip-off.

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It's early in the season, so there's no clear run for either side to point to, and this comes down to last season's form. We lean Lakers, who are the better side on paper and get the advantage of playing at home, and who won eleven of their 15 games decided by five points or fewer last season, which is what you want in a tight finish. The Warriors can hang around on the strength of their shooting, making 15.7 threes a game last season, the 2nd most in the league. The thing to watch is the absences, with Jimmy Butler III out with a knee problem and Stephen Curry questionable with an ankle, and if Curry is limited, the Lakers' edge gets a lot harder for the Warriors to overcome.

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Jrue Holiday is out with a hand injury for the Trail Blazers, and Oso Ighodaro is questionable with a hip problem for the Suns, so that's where the read starts. Portland get the nod because they're at home at Moda Center, but this is a true 50/50 and I'd not read too much into the lean. Last season the Trail Blazers let it fly, taking 42 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd most in the league, so expect plenty of shooting from deep. The thing to watch is how Portland cope without Holiday, because losing a key player is the one real risk to the home side.

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The Clippers get the nod here, with home court at the Intuit Dome and a Kings side that finished last season 27th of 30 at 22-60. Last season the Kings managed just 7-34 on the road and gave up 121 points a game, the 4th most in the league, while the Clippers won by 14.1 points on average when they won, so the home floor should suit them. The thing to watch is the injury report, because players ruled out could change how the Clippers look, and early in the season this is a lean rather than a certainty.

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Neither side has a standout tendency to lean on yet, and it is early enough in the season that any read on form is thin, so this is close to a coin flip. The home court edge is what tips it toward the 76ers at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The thing to watch is availability, with Dean Wade (Questionable, ankle) for Philadelphia and Sam Merrill (Questionable, elbow) for Cleveland both carrying real risk to their rotations, so check both before tip-off.