Loading NFL game…
F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1Lucas Oil Stadium· Fine
Colts
QB Daniel Jones
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson
Our PickLine-Ball
Ravens - too close to call
Total48 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
48 votesWinner
Ravens
40% agree
Total
48 pts
60% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the sharper team, but Daniel Jones has an explosive Colts offence firing at 27.4 points a game, and Indianapolis's home field at Lucas Oil is a real asset. The catch - the Colts limped home last season losing their last seven and have been poor travellers, while the Ravens stay close in their games, with seven decided by eight points or fewer. When either side clicks though, they blow teams away by 16 points or more. Keep your eye on whether the Colts can string together early success at home or if the Ravens' class tells over four quarters.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ ColtsRavens ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Colts
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 27.4 points a game last season.
💥
When they win, they win big - 16.1 points the average winning margin last season.
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 7.
✈️
Poor travellers - just 2-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Ravens
💥
When they win, they win big - 16.1 points the average winning margin last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Colts
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Ravens
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Steelersv
TexansRushing yards Down 67 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Colts · 2025+0.08-0.10+0.04Ravens · 2025+0.05+0.16+0.14
Defence EPA / play allowed
Colts · 2025+0.00+0.09-0.02Ravens · 2025+0.01+0.05+0.06
Yards per play
Colts · 20256.04.85.7Ravens · 20256.26.87.8
Passing yards
Colts · 2025240.3207.0286Ravens · 2025192.8176.0238
Rushing yards
Colts · 2025118.178.876Ravens · 2025156.6204.2137
Explosive plays
Colts · 20255.42.45Ravens · 20256.76.87
Giveaways
Colts · 20251.42.23Ravens · 20251.41.01
Takeaways
Colts · 20251.20.80Ravens · 20251.21.20
Sacks
Colts · 20252.30.80Ravens · 20251.82.22
Sacks allowed
Colts · 20251.71.41Ravens · 20252.62.23
Penalty yards
Colts · 202551.246.081Ravens · 202543.940.078
Points scored
Colts · 202527.421.830Ravens · 202524.927.024
Points allowed
Colts · 202524.232.638Ravens · 202523.421.026
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Coleman Owen (PR) (Colts) out - concussion (concussion) · IR
Form guide · 2025 season
ColtsvsRavens
8-9Record8-9
8 in AFCConference9 in AFC
27.4Pts for /game24.9
24.2Pts against /game23.4
2-4Division3-3
Daniel JonesStarting QBLamar Jackson
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.