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F
FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Late Mail
We were on the Texans here, we're on the Bills now after the latest injury report.
Week 1Reliant Stadium· neutral venue· Showers
Texans
QB C.J. Stroud
vMon, 14 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Bills
QB Josh Allen
Our PickLine-Ball
Bills - too close to call
Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
48 votesWinner
Bills
70% agree
Total
46 pts
58% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is genuinely a coin flip between two well-matched playoff contenders on a neutral field. The Bills bring a sharper offence (28.3 points a game) and finished 4th in the conference, while the Texans counter with a stingy defence (17.4 points conceded) and their own strong home record last season, though that edge disappears here. The real wrinkle is Houston's missing right tackle Braden Smith, which could expose their trenches against Josh Allen's mobility and the Bills' pass rush. Watch how badly the Texans' offensive line holds up without him, because C.J. Stroud will need time to work.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday afternoon, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ TexansBills ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Texans
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 17.4 points a game last season.
🏰
Fortress at home - 7-2 in their own building last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 12 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Bills
🏰
Fortress at home - 7-2 in their own building last season.
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 28.3 points a game last season.
🏆
Finished last season 4th in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Texans
2025 season19 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Bills
2025 season19 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Broncosv
PatriotsGiveaways Up 4 on their last 5 average
Giveaways Up 3 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Down 0.26 on their last 5 average
Yards per play Down 1.5 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Texans · 2025-0.03-0.15-0.41Bills · 2025+0.13+0.10+0.08
Defence EPA / play allowed
Texans · 2025-0.15-0.21-0.29Bills · 2025-0.01-0.09+0.00
Yards per play
Texans · 20255.35.13.6Bills · 20256.25.96.0
Passing yards
Texans · 2025232.5219.6212Bills · 2025238.8241.4283
Rushing yards
Texans · 2025108.6109.448Bills · 2025156.6151.4183
Explosive plays
Texans · 20255.35.03Bills · 20257.67.210
Giveaways
Texans · 20251.12.05Bills · 20251.31.45
Takeaways
Texans · 20251.82.03Bills · 20251.21.01
Sacks
Texans · 20252.93.65Bills · 20251.91.20
Sacks allowed
Texans · 20251.91.23Bills · 20252.32.23
Penalty yards
Texans · 202556.150.432Bills · 202550.342.068
Points scored
Texans · 202523.725.416Bills · 202528.325.430
Points allowed
Texans · 202517.320.228Bills · 202522.219.633
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Braden Smith (RT) (Texans) out - foot (plantar fasciitis) · IR
Form guide · 2025 season
TexansvsBills
12-5Record12-5
5 in AFCConference4 in AFC
23.8Pts for /game28.3
17.4Pts against /game21.5
5-1Division4-2
C.J. StroudStarting QBJosh Allen
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.