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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1SoFi Stadium· dome
Chargers
QB Justin Herbert
vMon, 14 Sept, 6:25 am AEST
Cardinals
QB Jacoby Brissett
Our PickSlight Lean
Chargers to win
Margin6Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
48 votesWinner
Chargers
47% agree
Line
By 6+
60% more
Total
46 pts
63% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Chargers have the edge here, and it starts with Justin Herbert against Jacoby Brissett. Herbert is the more explosive talent, and the Chargers' home turf at SoFi is a real advantage. Arizona travel poorly (2-7 on the road last season) and leak points at the back (28.7 a game), which suits a Chargers team that owns its division (5-1 against divisional rivals). The catch is that both these sides live in tight contests, and the Cardinals will have lost nine straight coming into this one, so they'll be hungry. Watch whether the Cardinals' pass rush can get after Herbert without Josh Sweat.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday evening, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ ChargersCardinals ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Chargers
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 3.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Cardinals
❄️
Limped to the line last season - lost their last 9.
✈️
Poor travellers - just 2-7 on the road last season.
🕳️
Leaky at the back - shipping 28.7 points a game last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🐶
Finished last season 29th in the league.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Chargers
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Cardinals
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
Patriotsv
RamsSacks allowed Up 3 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Chargers · 2025-0.05-0.11-0.25Cardinals · 2025-0.01-0.01+0.04
Defence EPA / play allowed
Chargers · 2025-0.09-0.09-0.04Cardinals · 2025+0.08+0.25+0.22
Yards per play
Chargers · 20255.45.04.2Cardinals · 20255.55.56.6
Passing yards
Chargers · 2025228.4208.2159Cardinals · 2025256.1241.2271
Rushing yards
Chargers · 2025119.7104.087Cardinals · 202593.175.279
Explosive plays
Chargers · 20255.65.04Cardinals · 20254.95.28
Giveaways
Chargers · 20251.21.01Cardinals · 20251.21.22
Takeaways
Chargers · 20251.41.42Cardinals · 20251.10.40
Sacks
Chargers · 20252.83.05Cardinals · 20251.81.21
Sacks allowed
Chargers · 20253.73.86Cardinals · 20253.53.46
Penalty yards
Chargers · 202544.830.820Cardinals · 202549.537.245
Points scored
Chargers · 202520.614.43Cardinals · 202520.918.020
Points allowed
Chargers · 202519.817.016Cardinals · 202528.737.037
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Denzel Perryman (RILB) (Chargers) out - undisclosed · IR
Form guide · 2025 season
ChargersvsCardinals
11-6Record3-14
6 in AFCConference16 in NFC
21.6Pts for /game20.9
20.0Pts against /game28.7
5-1Division0-6
Justin HerbertStarting QBJacoby Brissett
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.