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FormPicksWednesday 2 September
Week 1· DivisionalLincoln Financial Field· Fine
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts
vMon, 14 Sept, 6:25 am AEST
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels
Our PickSlight Lean
Eagles to win
Margin5Total45 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
46 votesWinner
Eagles
48% agree
Line
By 5+
58% more
Total
45 pts
64% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Eagles are the better-rated team playing at home, and that's enough to give them the edge here. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have shown they can grind through close games, but they're a different proposition on the road, winning just three of six away last season. Both sides seem to thrive in tight contests, so the real thing to watch is whether Philadelphia can build a lead big enough to avoid another one-score slog at Lincoln Financial Field.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are reading the room. Check back Saturday evening, ahead of kick-off, for what people are saying and how it stacks up against our call.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ EaglesCommanders ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Eagles
🏆
Finished last season 4th in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 13 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Commanders
✈️
Poor travellers - just 3-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A side marked with a year is showing last season's numbers until it has three games on the board this year.
⚡
Momentum
Eagles
2025 season18 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Commanders
2025 season17 games
Last 5 of 20255 games
Last game2025 finale
Last Game Key Callouts · last season's finale
v
49ersvEaglesDefence EPA / play allowed Up 0.22 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Down 0.22 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Eagles · 2025+0.02+0.05-0.04Commanders · 2025-0.00-0.09-0.05
Defence EPA / play allowed
Eagles · 2025-0.08-0.12+0.10Commanders · 2025+0.14+0.12-0.10
Yards per play
Eagles · 20255.45.04.3Commanders · 20255.75.54.3
Passing yards
Eagles · 2025203.7182.4168Commanders · 2025195.8157.2131
Rushing yards
Eagles · 2025118.2138.4140Commanders · 2025134.7124.6143
Explosive plays
Eagles · 20255.55.02Commanders · 20255.95.65
Giveaways
Eagles · 20250.80.40Commanders · 20251.41.62
Takeaways
Eagles · 20251.31.42Commanders · 20250.60.61
Sacks
Eagles · 20252.42.41Commanders · 20252.53.23
Sacks allowed
Eagles · 20252.01.61Commanders · 20252.21.60
Penalty yards
Eagles · 202562.360.648Commanders · 202553.747.019
Points scored
Eagles · 202522.121.819Commanders · 202520.918.824
Points allowed
Eagles · 202519.315.423Commanders · 202526.525.617
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Jonathan Greenard (SLB) (Eagles) out - pectoral (surgery)
Form guide · 2025 season
EaglesvsCommanders
11-6Record5-12
4 in NFCConference14 in NFC
22.3Pts for /game20.9
19.1Pts against /game26.5
3-3Division3-3
Jalen HurtsStarting QBJayden Daniels
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.