Jets at Chiefs - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

KCNYJWhat happenedWhat we expected (KC 28, NYJ 18)What the play deserved

The Chiefs fell 10 points behind the pace we expected in the first quarter but finished ahead of it.

Where it moved

▲ KC better than we expected

-10Q10-6

+4Q214-6

+13Q314-0

+7Q47-0

▼ NYJ better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 13 points better than our numbers for the Chiefs.

Every score

Q1 6:47FGJ.Sanders from 23 yards0-3
Q1 4:35FGJ.Sanders from 48 yards0-6
Q2 14:56TDP.Mahomes to K.Walker, 7 yards7-6
Q2 8:12FGJ.Sanders from 49 yards7-9
Q2 5:37TDP.Mahomes to K.Walker, 25 yards14-9
Q2 2:16FGJ.Sanders from 54 yards14-12
Q3 10:20TDT.Kelce from the 121-12
Q3 0:11TDK.Walker ran it in from 2 yards28-12
Q4 3:35TDE.Johnson ran it in from 6 yards35-12

⚖️What decided it

Why the Chiefs won, and why the Jets did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback five times
Out-gained them by 162 yards, 391 to 229
Kept drives alive, six of eleven on third down to two of twelve

Key battles

100%Red zone trips scored0%

55%Third downs converted17%

20Penalty yards57

9Big plays2

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Chiefs

Good plays

FUMBLE
A.Gilman recovered a fumble at the NYJ 24
Q2 6:29 · KC 7-9 NYJ
SACK
Sacked G.Smith on 4th & 3
Q4 11:47 · KC 28-12 NYJ
TOUCHDOWN
P.Mahomes to K.Walker, 25 yards
Q2 5:37 · KC 14-9 NYJ

Bad plays

MISSED FG
H.Butker missed from 51 yards
Q2 0:02 · KC 14-12 NYJ
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the KC 30
Q2 1:41 · KC 14-12 NYJ
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the KC 34
Q1 5:40 · KC 0-3 NYJ

Jets

Good plays

FUMBLE
W.McDonald recovered a fumble at the KC 30
Q2 1:41 · KC 14-12 NYJ
FUMBLE
D.Davis recovered a fumble at the KC 34
Q1 5:40 · KC 0-3 NYJ
FIELD GOAL
J.Sanders from 49 yards
Q2 8:12 · KC 7-9 NYJ

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the NYJ 24
Q2 6:29 · KC 7-9 NYJ
SACK
G.Smith sacked on 4th & 3
Q4 11:47 · KC 28-12 NYJ
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 9 at the KC 37
Q4 2:08 · KC 35-12 NYJ

📊The numbers

KC		NYJ
391	Total yards	229
6.0	Yards per play	3.7
+0.14	Points added per play	-0.30
228	Passing yards	123
163	Rushing yards	106
27	First downs	15
55%	Third downs converted	17%
100%	Red zone trips scored	0%
9	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	5
20	Penalty yards	57
28:54	Time with the ball	31:06

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Chiefs should be in front early, expect Jets to come at them late

Chiefs⭐JetsActual

7-3

Actual 0-6

Half

16-7

Actual 14-12

21-10

Actual 28-12

Final

28-18

Actual 35-12

Jets score 58% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Chiefs

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Jets

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

NYJ

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.621.22433

Per playGoodFairGreatGreat

Yards a play6.46.26.17.5

Passing yards246226321290

Rushing yards11311390166

Big plays5.66.4510

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed18.225.42838

Per playFairPoorPoorBad

Takeaways1.41.200

Sacks1.02.411

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.81.001

Sacks allowed1.02.822

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards63.656.210532

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ ChiefsJets ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Chiefs

Jets

Record5-22-6

Conference6 in AFC12 in AFC

Pts for / game23.921.3

Pts against / game18.723.5

Division3-10-2

Starting QBPatrick MahomesGeno Smith

KC v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	6-6	5-4	6-7
Happened	7-3	10-10	7-0	0-15

KC v SEA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	9-5	4-5	6-6
Happened	0-0	0-10	3-3	0-7

KC v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	9-4	7-5	4-4	8-4
Happened	9-3	10-0	0-3	3-0

KC v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	6-4	6-7
Happened	7-7	3-6	0-0	20-14

KC v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	5-7	9-2	6-7
Happened	7-7	7-0	0-3	10-0

A deserved win for the Chiefs

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form is a warning sign for the Chiefs

Chiefs

Jets

Public Opinion

KC		DEN
411	Total yards	299
6.1	Yards per play	5.3
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.11
19	First downs	16
5	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
105	Penalty yards	45

KC		SEA
215	Total yards	410
4.3	Yards per play	5.9
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.16
11	First downs	24
0	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
15	Penalty yards	20

KC		LAC
422	Total yards	277
7.4	Yards per play	4.4
+0.08	Points added per play	-0.27
20	First downs	11
9	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	4
89	Penalty yards	59

KC		LV
414	Total yards	437
7.1	Yards per play	5.6
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.05
17	First downs	24
8	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	0
59	Penalty yards	30

NYJ		LV
456	Total yards	342
7.5	Yards per play	5.7
+0.25	Points added per play	+0.20
23	First downs	20
10	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
32	Penalty yards	37

NYJ		MIA
395	Total yards	364
7.5	Yards per play	5.7
+0.27	Points added per play	+0.25
16	First downs	22
8	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	2
36	Penalty yards	26

NYJ		NE
349	Total yards	383
5.8	Yards per play	5.6
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.08
19	First downs	21
5	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	0
35	Penalty yards	57

NYJ		CLE
316	Total yards	251
4.8	Yards per play	3.9
-0.18	Points added per play	-0.30
14	First downs	10
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	8
102	Penalty yards	30

NYJ		CHI
178	Total yards	500
5.6	Yards per play	5.6
-0.14	Points added per play	+0.02
7	First downs	26
2	Big plays	11
0	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	1
76	Penalty yards	29