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Scone · Race 4 · 900m · Good 4 · $30,000

Emirates Park Country Boosted Mdn Plate

Wed, 11 Nov, 3:44 pm AEDT

📋

Race Analysis

Clear order

Tennessee River is our top rating with a real gap to the rest.

Standout

Clear order

Two-horse race

Open race

Big field

🎯 The winner is in our three

84% our three

2

Tennessee River

Top pick

places 73%

34%

5

Dr Hook

Danger

places 66%

27%

1

Gidgea Tree

Next Best

places 61%

23%

+6

The other 6between them

16%

Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.

🧮What is pulling each rating

The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.

Swipe the grid sideways for every signal

RunnerTallyRecent formClassRecent speedTrainer formBest speedFitnessClass moveExperienceAge & sexForm through rivalsFresh recordJockey formLate speed
2Tennessee River4
5Dr Hook52
1Gidgea Tree-

The rest of the field

3Envisioned15
4Sheza's Show15
6Morpeth5
8Hot Chestnut2
9Toke33
lifts its rating holds it back

🏁How they will settle

A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.

RailFront of the field first

Settles back · runs on late

None

No set pattern · could go either way

1Gidgea Tree2Tennessee River3Envisioned4Sheza's Show5Dr Hook6Morpeth10Nasa Blueberry

On the speed · likes to lead

8Hot Chestnut9Toke

🔁Head to head

Where Tennessee River has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.

Show 4 matchups

Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.

Morpeth vs Envisioned

Morpeth finished 3rd to 8th at Muswellbrook last preparation, 6.8 lengths clear.

Morpeth vs Hot Chestnut

Morpeth finished 5th to 6th at Muswellbrook a fortnight ago, a length clear.

Morpeth vs Toke

Morpeth finished 3rd to 4th at Muswellbrook last preparation, 1.9 lengths clear.

Toke vs Envisioned

Toke finished 2nd to 5th at Tamworth last preparation, 5.9 lengths clear.

🐎The field

Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.

Jump to a runner

2

Tennessee River

Top pick
JReece Jones·TT S Howlett

Last starts

24

Career

0 wins from 2

Weight

55.5kg+0.5

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Recent form▲ Recent speed▲ Experience▲ Class move

It is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 1.4 lengths a km under the track average, and it was placed last start, beaten 1.5L. Recent form, recent speed, experience and a favourable class move are all strengths, and barrier 2 should give it a soft run. There is no main concern flagged, so the thing to keep an eye on is how the early pace develops.

Read more
5

Dr Hook

Danger
JMitchell Bell·TBrett & Georgie Cavanough

Last starts

22057

Career

0 wins from 6

Weight

57.5kg-0.5

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Class▲ Age & sex▼ Fresh record▲ Recent form⚡Speed King

It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 3.5 lengths a km under the track average, and it was placed last start, beaten 1.5L. Class, age and sex, and recent form all support the rating. The main concern is its fresh record, so a return from a break is the thing to watch.

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1

Gidgea Tree

Next Best
JAaron Bullock·TM D Griffith

Last starts

No starts

Career

First starter

Weight

59.0kg

Class

Maiden
🔥Hot Jockey⏱️ Trialled well

It resumes today off an eye-catching barrier trial, finishing 2nd and beaten a nose, and barrier 1 should give it a soft run. There is no standout rating driver either way, so the read rests on that trial and the draw. The main thing to watch is that this is its first run back from a spell, with no first-up record yet.

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3

Envisioned

JWinona Costin·TS J Gleeson

Last starts

06635

Career

0 wins from 7

Weight

59.0kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▼ Class▼ Recent form▼ Fitness / freshness▲ Late speed🔧 Blinkers again, nose roll first time.

Jockey Winona Costin is riding 21% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and barrier 3 should give it a soft run. The case is held back by concerns over class, recent form and fitness or freshness, though its late speed is a genuine strength. The main thing to watch is the first-time blinkers, which are a sharpening change with an unknown effect.

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4

Sheza's Show

JAndrew Gibbons·TJohn W Ramsey

Last starts

9

Career

0 wins from 1

Weight

55.5kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▼ Recent form▼ Class▼ Recent speed▲ Experience🔧 Cross-over nose band first time, hanoverian nose band off first time, tongue tie first time.
6

Morpeth

JGabrielle Johnston·TCarlos Antonio

Last starts

57570

Career

0 wins from 9

Weight

57.5kg+2.5

Class

Same, Maiden
▼ Class▼ Recent form▼ Best speed▼ Recent speed🔥Hot Jockey🔧 Tongue tie first time.

Jockey Gabrielle Johnston is riding 27% above expectation across the last 100 rides, which is the strongest positive here. The case is weighed down by concerns over class, recent form, best speed and recent speed, so it has to show improvement to hold a place in a competitive race.

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8

Hot Chestnut

JChristian Reith·TT E Ollerton

Last starts

8665

Career

0 wins from 22

Weight

59.0kg+1.5

Class

Same, Maiden
▼ Recent form▼ Class🔧 Blinkers again.

Trainer T E Ollerton is in form, running 27% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Its rating is held back by concerns over recent form and class. The main thing to watch is the return to blinkers, a sharpening change whose effect is not yet known.

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9

Toke

JMikayla Weir·TMs J Bowen

Last starts

53340

Career

0 wins from 12

Weight

59.0kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Recent form▼ Class▲ Form through rivals▲ Jockey form

Its recent form, form through its rivals and jockey form are all strengths, and class is the main concern. It has a wide barrier 9 of 10 to overcome, which is the main thing to watch because it makes the early running harder.

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10

Nasa Blueberry

J ·TCarlos Antonio

Last starts

No starts

Career

First starter

Weight

57.0kg

Class

Maiden

There is no standout rating driver either way, so the read rests on its draw and preparation. It has a wide barrier 10 of 10 to overcome, and it is coming off a spell with no first-up record yet. The main thing to watch is that first run back from a spell, which leaves its fitness untested.

Read more

ScratchedBungan Bouncer

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.