Scone · Race 4 · 900m · Good 4 · $30,000
Emirates Park Country Boosted Mdn Plate
Wed, 11 Nov, 3:44 pm AEDT
Race Analysis
Clear order
Tennessee River is our top rating with a real gap to the rest.
Standout
Clear order
Two-horse race
Open race
Big field
🎯 The winner is in our three
84% our three
Tennessee River
Top pick
34%
Dr Hook
Danger
27%
Gidgea Tree
Next Best
23%
The other 6between them
16%
Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.
🧮What is pulling each rating
The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.
Swipe the grid sideways for every signal
The rest of the field
🏁How they will settle
A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.
Settles back · runs on late
runs on late
No set pattern · could go either way
could go either way
On the speed · likes to lead
likes to lead
🔁Head to head
Where Tennessee River has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.
Show 4 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Morpeth vs Envisioned
Morpeth finished 3rd to 8th at Muswellbrook last preparation, 6.8 lengths clear.
Morpeth vs Hot Chestnut
Morpeth finished 5th to 6th at Muswellbrook a fortnight ago, a length clear.
Morpeth vs Toke
Morpeth finished 3rd to 4th at Muswellbrook last preparation, 1.9 lengths clear.
Toke vs Envisioned
Toke finished 2nd to 5th at Tamworth last preparation, 5.9 lengths clear.
🐎The field
Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.
Jump to a runner
Tennessee River
Top pickLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 1.4 lengths a km under the track average, and it was placed last start, beaten 1.5L. Recent form, recent speed, experience and a favourable class move are all strengths, and barrier 2 should give it a soft run. There is no main concern flagged, so the thing to keep an eye on is how the early pace develops.
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Dr Hook
DangerLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 3.5 lengths a km under the track average, and it was placed last start, beaten 1.5L. Class, age and sex, and recent form all support the rating. The main concern is its fresh record, so a return from a break is the thing to watch.
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Gidgea Tree
Next BestLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It resumes today off an eye-catching barrier trial, finishing 2nd and beaten a nose, and barrier 1 should give it a soft run. There is no standout rating driver either way, so the read rests on that trial and the draw. The main thing to watch is that this is its first run back from a spell, with no first-up record yet.
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Envisioned
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Jockey Winona Costin is riding 21% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and barrier 3 should give it a soft run. The case is held back by concerns over class, recent form and fitness or freshness, though its late speed is a genuine strength. The main thing to watch is the first-time blinkers, which are a sharpening change with an unknown effect.
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Sheza's Show
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Morpeth
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Jockey Gabrielle Johnston is riding 27% above expectation across the last 100 rides, which is the strongest positive here. The case is weighed down by concerns over class, recent form, best speed and recent speed, so it has to show improvement to hold a place in a competitive race.
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Hot Chestnut
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Trainer T E Ollerton is in form, running 27% above expectation across the last 100 runners. Its rating is held back by concerns over recent form and class. The main thing to watch is the return to blinkers, a sharpening change whose effect is not yet known.
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Toke
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Its recent form, form through its rivals and jockey form are all strengths, and class is the main concern. It has a wide barrier 9 of 10 to overcome, which is the main thing to watch because it makes the early running harder.
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Nasa Blueberry
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
There is no standout rating driver either way, so the read rests on its draw and preparation. It has a wide barrier 10 of 10 to overcome, and it is coming off a spell with no first-up record yet. The main thing to watch is that first run back from a spell, which leaves its fitness untested.
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ScratchedBungan Bouncer