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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Week 2· DivisionalAT&T Stadium· Fine
Cowboys
0-1
vMon, 21 Sept, 6:25 am AEST
Commanders
0-1
Our PickLine-Ball
Cowboys - too close to call
Total50 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
30 votesWinner
Cowboys
63% agree
Total
50 pts
52% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Cowboys have the edge here playing at home, where they'll lean on an explosive offence that averaged 27.6 points a game last season. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders arrive as poor travellers, winning just three of nine road games in 2024, and both teams live in tight contests so this should be competitive throughout. Watch the Commanders' defence early - Dallas has a leaky secondary that gave up 30.1 points a game, so if Washington can generate pressure on Dak Prescott and force mistakes, they stay in it despite the road disadvantage.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usCowboys 58%42%
Dallas's defence is under the microscope again after a rough opener, and Washington smells blood with the run game. That tension is the whole story here, not just home comforts.
The room is basically nodding along with us, worried about the same leaky Cowboys defence that shows up in our numbers. For Washington to actually win it, their run game has to work early and Dallas's new coordinator has to have another bad week, both of which are live possibilities we can't rule out.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Form12 mentions
Plenty reckon neither side looks convincing after their opening round hit-outs, though Dallas copped the bigger wake-up call since their defeat seemed so lopsided, offense and defence alike, and that puts extra heat on t…
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
That lopsided defeat is exactly why we already had Dallas down as leaky at the back rather than dominant.
Matchup12 mentions
A lot of the talk is about Washington's plan to run right at Dallas's rebuilt defense, since the Cowboys could not stop the run in their opener.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
Washington leaning on the run against a shaky Cowboys defence is baked into why this is a coinflip and not a confident home pick.
Coach9 mentions
There is real scrutiny on Dallas's new defensive coordinator, with people wanting to see whether his first week was a one-off or a sign of deeper trouble.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
How the new coordinator responds in week two is something we genuinely can't see from here, and it could tip this either way.
Talk9 mentions
Cowboys fans are openly anxious about slipping to 0-2, with plenty of talk framing this as an early referendum on the season rather than just another divisional game.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We don't buy the season referendum framing, this reads more like a normal divisional scrap where Washington's poor road form matters just as much.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ CowboysCommanders ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Cowboys
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 27.7 points a game last season.
🕳️
Leaky at the back - shipping 30.1 points a game last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Commanders
✈️
Poor travellers - just 3-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A season figure marked with a year is last year's, until that side has three games on the board this one. The last 5 and last game always run back from its most recent outing, whichever season that fell in.
⚡
Momentum
Cowboys
2025 season17 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Commanders
2025 season17 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Giantsv
EaglesExplosive plays Down 4 on their last 5 average
Rushing yards Down 61 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Cowboys+0.09’25+0.09+0.22Commanders-0.00’25+0.01+0.06
Defence EPA / play allowed
Cowboys+0.17’25+0.26+0.31Commanders+0.14’25+0.09+0.07
Yards per play
Cowboys6.1’255.74.7Commanders5.7’255.54.4
Passing yards
Cowboys278.5’25234.8175Commanders195.8’25168.4164
Rushing yards
Cowboys125.6’25130.469Commanders134.7’25129.6132
Explosive plays
Cowboys6.0’255.41Commanders5.9’255.85
Giveaways
Cowboys1.2’250.81Commanders1.4’251.00
Takeaways
Cowboys0.7’250.61Commanders0.6’250.60
Sacks
Cowboys2.0’251.62Commanders2.5’253.03
Sacks allowed
Cowboys1.8’251.80Commanders2.2’251.41
Penalty yards
Cowboys66.8’2574.290Commanders53.7’2549.245
Points scored
Cowboys27.7’2522.020Commanders20.9’2523.222
Points allowed
Cowboys30.1’2530.628Commanders26.5’2524.224
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Chig Okonkwo (TE) (Commanders) out - hamstring
DeMarvion Overshown (LILB) (Cowboys) out - hamstring
Malik Hooker (FS) (Cowboys) out - forearm (fracture)
Frankie Luvu (LILB) (Commanders) out - groin (strain)
Season form guide
CowboysvsCommanders
0-1Record0-1
13 in NFCConference10 in NFC
20.0Pts for /game22.0
28.0Pts against /game24.0
0-1Division0-1
Dak PrescottStarting QBJayden Daniels
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.