Browns at Titans - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

TENCLEWhat happenedWhat we expected (TEN 17, CLE 22)What the play deserved

The Browns stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game.

Where it moved

▲ TEN better than we expected

+5Q114-7

-5Q20-10

+1Q30-0

0Q410-10

▼ CLE better than we expected

The first quarter was where it moved most, 5 points better than our numbers for the Titans.

Every score

Q1 12:57TDT.Pollard ran it in from 36 yards7-0
Q1 8:35TDT.Pollard ran it in from 10 yards14-0
Q1 5:32TDQ.Judkins ran it in from 5 yards14-7
Q2 2:17TDQ.Judkins ran it in from 6 yards14-14
Q2 0:00FGA.Szmyt from 28 yards14-17
Q4 8:41FGJ.Slye from 29 yards17-17
Q4 4:34TDD.Watson ran it in from 9 yards17-24
Q4 0:58TDT.Pollard from the 124-24
Q4 0:00FGA.Szmyt from 32 yards24-27

⚖️What decided it

Why the Browns won, and why the Titans did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 169 yards, 491 to 322

Key battles

5Big plays11

181Passing yards308

322Total yards491

5.2Yards per play7.4

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Titans

Good plays

4TH DOWN
C.Ward to E.Ayomanor for 26 yards on 4th & 8
Q4 2:33 · TEN 17-24 CLE
INTERCEPTION
C.Flott picked off D.Watson at the CLE 24
Q1 10:47 · TEN 7-0 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
T.Pollard, 36 yards
Q1 12:57 · TEN 7-0 CLE

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the CLE 1
Q2 9:39 · TEN 14-7 CLE
INTERCEPTION
C.Ward picked off by D.Ward at the CLE 22
Q2 7:07 · TEN 14-7 CLE
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the TEN 41
Q3 8:32 · TEN 14-17 CLE

Browns

Good plays

4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the CLE 1
Q2 9:39 · TEN 14-7 CLE
BIG PLAY
D.Watson to H.Fannin for 36 yards
Q4 0:28 · TEN 24-24 CLE
INTERCEPTION
D.Ward picked off C.Ward at the CLE 22
Q2 7:07 · TEN 14-7 CLE

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Watson picked off by C.Flott at the CLE 24
Q1 10:47 · TEN 7-0 CLE
MISSED FG
A.Szmyt missed from 43 yards
Q4 14:09 · TEN 14-17 CLE
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CLE 44
Q2 7:15 · TEN 14-7 CLE

📊The numbers

TEN		CLE
322	Total yards	491
5.2	Yards per play	7.4
+0.03	Points added per play	+0.18
181	Passing yards	308
141	Rushing yards	183
18	First downs	26
38%	Third downs converted	45%
50%	Red zone trips scored	60%
5	Big plays	11
2	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
35	Penalty yards	48
28:46	Time with the ball	31:14

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Browns should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

TitansBrowns⭐Actual

6-3

Actual 14-7

Half

9-12

Actual 14-17

12-17

Actual 14-17

Final

17-22

Actual 24-27

Titans score 55% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Titans

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Browns

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

TEN

CLE

TEN

CLE

TEN

CLE

TEN

CLE

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored14.819.22613

Per playBadPoorBadPoor

Yards a play4.84.84.14.3

Passing yards172194102164

Rushing yards85.895.48493

Big plays3.64.211

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed21.217.62010

Per playFairGoodGoodGood

Takeaways1.01.431

Sacks3.23.663

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.41.010

Sacks allowed1.43.805

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards55.459.45445

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ TitansBrowns ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Titans

Browns

Record1-54-2

Conference14 in AFC8 in AFC

Pts for / game14.017.7

Pts against / game21.520.3

Division1-12-0

Starting QBCam WardDeshaun Watson

CLE v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	7-6	4-3	8-6
Happened	0-10	0-0	3-0	10-0

CLE v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	8-4	4-5	6-6
Happened	3-7	3-0	0-0	6-10

CLE v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	5-6	3-5	9-5
Happened	0-7	21-3	0-0	6-14

CLE v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-7	7-6	4-6	6-5
Happened	0-0	10-3	0-6	11-9

CLE v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-8	7-6	3-5	5-5
Happened	3-6	3-3	10-7	7-3

A deserved win for the Browns

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Browns

Titans

Public Opinion

CLE		BAL
257	Total yards	252
4.3	Yards per play	4.4
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.09
12	First downs	12
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	29

CLE		NYJ
251	Total yards	316
3.9	Yards per play	4.8
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.18
10	First downs	14
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
8	Sacks taken	4
30	Penalty yards	102

CLE		PIT
380	Total yards	391
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.10	Points added per play	+0.07
20	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	5
88	Penalty yards	50

CLE		CAR
276	Total yards	389
4.4	Yards per play	5.3
-0.02	Points added per play	-0.13
14	First downs	21
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
84	Penalty yards	63

CLE		TB
282	Total yards	319
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
+0.01	Points added per play	-0.15
13	First downs	16
2	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
50	Penalty yards	62

TEN		IND
186	Total yards	434
4.1	Yards per play	5.6
-0.14	Points added per play	-0.11
10	First downs	22
1	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	3
0	Sacks taken	6
54	Penalty yards	61

TEN		HOU
227	Total yards	340
3.9	Yards per play	5.4
-0.39	Points added per play	+0.09
13	First downs	19
2	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	2
83	Penalty yards	95

TEN		BAL
307	Total yards	397
5.3	Yards per play	6.5
-0.08	Points added per play	+0.14
15	First downs	19
5	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	2
32	Penalty yards	131

TEN		PHI
305	Total yards	353
6.0	Yards per play	4.9
+0.08	Points added per play	+0.04
14	First downs	21
7	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	35

TEN v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	5-10	3-6	6-5
Happened	0-3	0-6	0-3	7-0