Colts at Vikings - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

MININDWhat happenedWhat we expected (MIN 29, IND 16)What the play deserved

The Vikings fell 10 points behind the pace we expected in the first quarter, then it evened out by full time. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ MIN better than we expected

-10Q10-7

+2Q26-3

-2Q30-0

+3Q410-0

▼ IND better than we expected

The first quarter was where it moved most, 10 points worse than our numbers for the Vikings.

Every score

Q1 9:13TDJ.Taylor ran it in from 38 yards0-7
Q2 14:52FGW.Reichard from 28 yards3-7
Q2 6:37FGW.Reichard from 47 yards6-7
Q2 0:00FGS.Shrader from 43 yards6-10
Q4 14:36TDK.Murray to T.Hockenson, 5 yards13-10
Q4 1:39FGW.Reichard from 52 yards16-10

⚖️What decided it

Why the Vikings won, and why the Colts did not.

From the game

Could not stay on the field, three of eleven on third down to eight of fifteen

Key battles

50%Red zone trips scored0%

139Passing yards64

27%Third downs converted53%

24Penalty yards46

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Vikings

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
H.Smith picked off D.Jones at the IND 41
Q4 1:15 · MIN 16-10 IND
3RD DOWN
K.Murray for 35 yards on 3rd & 8
Q4 15:00 · MIN 6-10 IND
BIG PLAY
K.Murray to T.Hockenson for 22 yards
Q4 11:00 · MIN 13-10 IND

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the IND 38
Q1 12:52 · MIN 0-0 IND
BLOCKED
Field goal try blocked
Q4 8:38 · MIN 13-10 IND

Colts

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Taylor, 38 yards
Q1 9:13 · MIN 0-7 IND
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the IND 38
Q1 12:52 · MIN 0-0 IND
BLOCKED
Blocked a field goal try from the IND 41
Q4 8:38 · MIN 13-10 IND

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Jones picked off by H.Smith at the IND 41
Q4 1:15 · MIN 16-10 IND
MISSED FG
S.Shrader missed from 48 yards
Q4 4:27 · MIN 13-10 IND
MISSED FG
S.Shrader missed from 56 yards
Q3 2:19 · MIN 6-10 IND

📊The numbers

MIN		IND
275	Total yards	218
4.9	Yards per play	3.7
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.11
139	Passing yards	64
136	Rushing yards	154
17	First downs	15
27%	Third downs converted	53%
50%	Red zone trips scored	0%
7	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	4
24	Penalty yards	46
28:10	Time with the ball	31:50

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Vikings should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Vikings⭐ColtsActual

6-3

Actual 0-7

Half

14-10

Actual 6-10

19-13

Actual 6-10

Final

29-16

Actual 16-10

Colts score 57% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Vikings

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Colts

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

MIN

IND

MIN

IND

MIN

IND

MIN

IND

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored21.824.22320

Per playPoorFairFairPoor

Yards a play4.94.95.65.6

Passing yards188225229269

Rushing yards116113153165

Big plays4.86.077

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed12.824.61326

Per playGreatFairGreatGreat

Takeaways2.00.431

Sacks3.41.610

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.81.823

Sacks allowed3.02.626

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards50.039.23061

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ VikingsColts ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Vikings

Colts

Record5-02-4

Conference2 in NFC13 in AFC

Pts for / game21.824.0

Pts against / game12.827.3

Division2-01-1

Starting QBKyler MurrayDaniel Jones

MIN v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-2	7-5	5-5	7-6
Happened	3-0	3-7	7-6	10-0

MIN v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	6-6	7-2	7-4
Happened	3-0	6-0	3-10	3-0

MIN v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	7-7	4-5	8-4
Happened	10-7	7-3	0-3	6-3

MIN v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	8-8	4-7	7-10
Happened	3-3	3-0	0-0	3-0

MIN v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	6-9	4-6	8-5
Happened	3-9	7-10	7-3	22-0

The Vikings edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form is a warning sign for the Vikings

Vikings

Colts

Public Opinion

MIN		NO
382	Total yards	151
5.6	Yards per play	3.5
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.35
18	First downs	9
7	Big plays	0
2	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	1
30	Penalty yards	41

MIN		TB
246	Total yards	274
4.5	Yards per play	4.3
-0.26	Points added per play	-0.25
9	First downs	9
5	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	6
95	Penalty yards	81

MIN		CHI
262	Total yards	326
5.1	Yards per play	4.7
-0.08	Points added per play	-0.13
10	First downs	16
4	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	58

MIN		GB
258	Total yards	453
4.2	Yards per play	6.8
-0.02	Points added per play	-0.17
14	First downs	19
2	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	4
15	Penalty yards	98

IND		PIT
333	Total yards	362
4.8	Yards per play	6.7
+0.00	Points added per play	+0.21
19	First downs	15
7	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
59	Penalty yards	50

IND		KC
329	Total yards	534
5.2	Yards per play	6.8
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.23
21	First downs	29
6	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
30	Penalty yards	86

IND v TEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	12-4	5-3	5-6
Happened	0-0	13-0	0-6	7-20