Broncos at Cardinals - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

ARIDENWhat happenedWhat we expected (ARI 18, DEN 27)What the play deserved

The Broncos got 8 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ ARI better than we expected

-4Q10-6

+1Q26-7

-6Q37-14

+3Q43-3

▼ DEN better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 6 points worse than our numbers for the Cardinals.

Every score

Q1 11:00FGW.Lutz from 48 yards0-3
Q1 1:08FGW.Lutz from 43 yards0-6
Q2 14:16FGC.Ryland from 30 yards3-6
Q2 4:30FGC.Ryland from 26 yards6-6
Q2 3:43TDB.Nix ran it in from 62 yards6-13
Q3 10:26TDB.Nix to R.Harvey, 52 yards6-20
Q3 3:50TDJ.Brissett to T.McBride, 7 yards13-20
Q3 0:00TDJ.Dobbins from the 113-27
Q4 8:39FGW.Lutz from 31 yards13-30
Q4 6:21FGC.Ryland from 41 yards16-30

⚖️What decided it

Why the Broncos won, and why the Cardinals did not.

From the game

Held firm near the line, they got one touchdown from five trips inside the 20
Got to the quarterback three times and gave up one sack
Flagged 11 times for 114 yards

Key battles

20%Red zone trips scored50%

59Penalty yards114

94Rushing yards159

3Sacks taken1

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Cardinals

Good plays

BIG PLAY
J.Brissett to J.Brooks for 35 yards
Q4 2:09 · ARI 16-30 DEN
3RD DOWN
J.Brissett to T.McBride for 26 yards on 3rd & 10
Q4 8:31 · ARI 13-30 DEN
BIG PLAY
J.Brissett to T.McBride for 27 yards
Q4 14:19 · ARI 13-27 DEN

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 5 at the DEN 5
Q4 0:56 · ARI 16-30 DEN
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 13 at the DEN 40
Q4 12:57 · ARI 13-27 DEN

Broncos

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
B.Nix, 62 yards
Q2 3:43 · ARI 6-13 DEN
TOUCHDOWN
B.Nix to R.Harvey, 52 yards
Q3 10:26 · ARI 6-20 DEN
BIG PLAY
B.Nix to M.Mims for 47 yards
Q3 0:47 · ARI 13-20 DEN

Bad plays

PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on B.Jones, 25 yards
Q3 4:36 · ARI 6-20 DEN
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on R.Moss, 26 yards
Q1 1:02 · ARI 0-6 DEN

📊The numbers

ARI		DEN
353	Total yards	377
4.7	Yards per play	6.7
-0.11	Points added per play	+0.19
259	Passing yards	218
94	Rushing yards	159
24	First downs	18
29%	Third downs converted	27%
20%	Red zone trips scored	50%
6	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	1
59	Penalty yards	114
33:18	Time with the ball	26:42

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Broncos should be in front early, expect Cardinals to come at them late

CardinalsBroncos⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 0-6

Half

7-12

Actual 6-13

12-18

Actual 13-27

Final

18-27

Actual 16-30

Broncos finish strong, 35% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Cardinals

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Broncos

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

ARI

DEN

ARI

DEN

ARI

DEN

ARI

DEN

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.020.81817

Per playPoorPoorFairBad

Yards a play4.54.64.83.2

Passing yards212184218107

Rushing yards92.488.812074

Big plays2.63.841

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed32.818.81614

Per playBadGoodGoodGood

Takeaways1.21.813

Sacks2.03.225

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.20.810

Sacks allowed2.20.802

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards57.043.45142

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ CardinalsBroncos ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Cardinals

Broncos

Record2-44-2

Conference14 in NFC7 in AFC

Pts for / game21.019.0

Pts against / game29.720.8

Division1-21-1

Starting QBJacoby BrissettBo Nix

DEN v SEA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	6-5	5-7	9-5
Happened	0-3	14-0	0-0	0-11

DEN v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	6-6	5-5	8-4
Happened	7-0	3-3	0-14	13-0

DEN v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	6-7	4-6	6-6
Happened	3-0	0-3	0-7	11-14

DEN v LAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	7-6	5-7	5-5
Happened	0-7	0-9	16-0	14-10

DEN v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	6-8	5-6	6-5
Happened	0-0	3-10	3-3	14-0

A deserved win for the Broncos

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form is a warning sign for the Broncos

Broncos

Cardinals

Public Opinion

DEN		SEA
181	Total yards	391
3.2	Yards per play	4.8
-0.14	Points added per play	-0.09
11	First downs	23
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	5
42	Penalty yards	75

DEN		LAC
229	Total yards	276
4.0	Yards per play	4.4
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.30
12	First downs	12
3	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	5
40	Penalty yards	93

DEN		SF
296	Total yards	358
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
+0.09	Points added per play	+0.12
16	First downs	19
2	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	0
44	Penalty yards	5

DEN		LAR
264	Total yards	506
4.4	Yards per play	6.2
-0.01	Points added per play	+0.02
16	First downs	25
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	4
38	Penalty yards	91

DEN		JAX
392	Total yards	284
6.6	Yards per play	5.2
+0.06	Points added per play	-0.05
20	First downs	17
9	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	2
53	Penalty yards	40

ARI		LAR
338	Total yards	314
4.8	Yards per play	5.6
-0.02	Points added per play	-0.09
20	First downs	16
4	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	3
51	Penalty yards	31

ARI		NYG
289	Total yards	337
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.08
17	First downs	14
4	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	44

ARI		SF
373	Total yards	437
4.6	Yards per play	8.7
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.45
24	First downs	21
0	Big plays	10
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	69

ARI		SEA
165	Total yards	397
3.5	Yards per play	5.9
-0.33	Points added per play	+0.13
8	First downs	21
1	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	1
48	Penalty yards	26

ARI v DET	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	5-9	6-6	7-7
Happened	7-0	0-24	7-14	7-7

ARI v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	8-7	3-5	7-5
Happened	14-3	3-16	7-8	0-9