Colts at Jaguars - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

JAXINDWhat happenedWhat we expected (JAX 28, IND 17)What the play deserved

The Jaguars got 23 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ JAX better than we expected

+5Q17-0

+18Q221-0

+5Q314-7

-3Q40-0

▼ IND better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 18 points better than our numbers for the Jaguars.

Every score

Q1 5:30TDJaguars ran it in from 12 yards7-0
Q2 7:14TDT.Lawrence to N.Boerkircher, 31 yards14-0
Q2 1:51TDB.Tuten ran it in from 39 yards21-0
Q2 0:10TDR.Lane took an interception back for a touchdown28-0
Q3 9:08TDC.Rodriguez ran it in from 28 yards35-0
Q3 3:59TDD.Jones to J.Downs, 6 yards35-7
Q3 0:00TDT.Lawrence to B.Tuten, 25 yards42-7

⚖️What decided it

Why the Jaguars won, and why the Colts did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away three times and gave it up once
Out-gained them by 123 yards, 366 to 243
Won the ground game, 183 rushing yards to 109

Key battles

100%Red zone trips scored50%

50%Third downs converted27%

6.9Yards per play4.0

183Rushing yards109

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Jaguars

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
R.Lane took an interception back for a touchdown
Q2 0:10 · JAX 28-0 IND
FUMBLE
Recovered a fumble at midfield
Q2 9:11 · JAX 7-0 IND
TOUCHDOWN
B.Tuten, 39 yards
Q2 1:51 · JAX 21-0 IND

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the JAX 31
Q2 1:03 · JAX 21-0 IND
SACK
T.Lawrence sacked on 3rd & 6
Q3 13:30 · JAX 28-0 IND

Colts

Good plays

FUMBLE
C.Curry recovered a fumble at the JAX 31
Q2 1:03 · JAX 21-0 IND
3RD DOWN
D.Jones to L.Treadwell for 18 yards on 3rd & 10
Q3 8:58 · JAX 35-0 IND
TOUCHDOWN
D.Jones to J.Downs, 6 yards
Q3 3:59 · JAX 35-7 IND

Bad plays

PICK SIX
D.Jones picked off and run back for a touchdown
Q2 0:10 · JAX 28-0 IND
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at midfield
Q2 9:11 · JAX 7-0 IND
INTERCEPTION
D.Jones picked off by B.Combs at the JAX 28
Q4 13:29 · JAX 42-7 IND

📊The numbers

JAX		IND
366	Total yards	243
6.9	Yards per play	4.0
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.47
183	Passing yards	134
183	Rushing yards	109
18	First downs	17
50%	Third downs converted	27%
100%	Red zone trips scored	50%
7	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	3
3	Sacks taken	4
65	Penalty yards	54
29:38	Time with the ball	30:22

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Jaguars should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Jaguars⭐ColtsActual

6-3

Actual 7-0

Half

14-9

Actual 28-0

20-13

Actual 42-7

Final

28-17

Actual 42-7

Colts score 57% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Jaguars

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Colts

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

JAX

IND

JAX

IND

JAX

IND

JAX

IND

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored24.020.23110

Per playGreatPoorGreatPoor

Yards a play5.84.76.14.4

Passing yards247204306108

Rushing yards110120106154

Big plays5.85.473

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed18.821.23416

Per playFairGoodBadGreat

Takeaways1.40.410

Sacks1.01.803

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.81.811

Sacks allowed1.83.404

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards77.442.46646

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ JaguarsColts ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Jaguars

Colts

Record4-22-5

Conference6 in AFC13 in AFC

Pts for / game25.722.0

Pts against / game17.325.7

Division0-11-1

Starting QBTrevor LawrenceDaniel Jones

JAX v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	9-6	6-3	5-7
Happened	0-7	14-10	7-14	10-3

JAX v PHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	8-6	4-3	7-5
Happened	7-0	0-14	3-0	9-3

JAX v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	9-7	5-5	5-6
Happened	3-0	10-3	3-7	6-7

JAX v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	7-6	5-3	5-6
Happened	0-0	14-3	14-0	7-3

JAX v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	8-6	6-5	5-6
Happened	0-0	10-3	3-3	0-14

A deserved win for the Jaguars

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Jaguars

Colts

Public Opinion

JAX		HOU
412	Total yards	426
6.1	Yards per play	7.2
+0.17	Points added per play	+0.22
23	First downs	19
7	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
66	Penalty yards	40

JAX		PHI
433	Total yards	242
6.4	Yards per play	4.1
+0.06	Points added per play	-0.20
18	First downs	11
8	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
100	Penalty yards	43

JAX		CIN
338	Total yards	451
6.3	Yards per play	6.4
+0.19	Points added per play	+0.05
16	First downs	23
6	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	2
125	Penalty yards	108

JAX		NE
319	Total yards	328
5.3	Yards per play	5.5
+0.23	Points added per play	-0.25
20	First downs	14
3	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	3
56	Penalty yards	68

JAX		DEN
284	Total yards	392
5.2	Yards per play	6.6
-0.05	Points added per play	+0.06
17	First downs	20
5	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
40	Penalty yards	53

IND		MIN
262	Total yards	286
4.4	Yards per play	5.1
-0.11	Points added per play	-0.12
15	First downs	15
3	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	3
46	Penalty yards	24

IND		PIT
333	Total yards	362
4.8	Yards per play	6.7
+0.00	Points added per play	+0.21
19	First downs	15
7	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
59	Penalty yards	50

IND		WSH
271	Total yards	332
4.1	Yards per play	5.4
-0.08	Points added per play	-0.25
16	First downs	11
5	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
5	Penalty yards	84

IND v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-6	7-8	3-5	3-10
Happened	7-0	3-6	0-0	0-10

IND v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-6	8-7	3-4	7-8
Happened	6-7	7-10	6-7	3-10