Broncos at Panthers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

CARDENWhat happenedWhat we expected (CAR 20, DEN 25)What the play deserved

The Broncos got 8 points ahead of the pace we expected in the first quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ CAR better than we expected

-8Q10-10

+6Q27-3

+6Q37-0

-4Q47-13

▼ DEN better than we expected

The first quarter was where it moved most, 8 points worse than our numbers for the Panthers.

Every score

Q1 11:09FGW.Lutz from 26 yards0-3
Q1 1:23TDB.Nix to C.Sutton, 3 yards0-10
Q2 1:27TDB.Young to T.Tremble, 10 yards7-10
Q2 0:04FGW.Lutz from 48 yards7-13
Q3 11:30TDB.Young to D.Waller, 15 yards14-13
Q4 10:17TDJ.Coleman ran it in from 9 yards14-19
Q4 5:41TDB.Nix to P.Bryant, 26 yards14-26
Q4 3:05TDB.Young to T.McMillan, 4 yards21-26

⚖️What decided it

Why the Broncos won, and why the Panthers did not.

From the game

Kept drives alive, six of ten on third down to three of ten
Got to the quarterback three times and gave up one sack
Flagged 13 times for 119 yards

Key battles

119Penalty yards50

30%Third downs converted60%

8Big plays3

75%Red zone trips scored50%

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Panthers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
C.Thornton picked off B.Nix at the CAR 14
Q2 7:38 · CAR 0-10 DEN
TOUCHDOWN
B.Young to D.Waller, 15 yards
Q3 11:30 · CAR 14-13 DEN
3RD DOWN
B.Young to T.McMillan for 20 yards on 3rd & 17
Q2 4:12 · CAR 0-10 DEN

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the DEN 44
Q4 1:24 · CAR 21-26 DEN
INTERCEPTION
B.Young picked off by D.Key at the DEN 20
Q3 1:35 · CAR 14-13 DEN
MISSED FG
R.Fitzgerald missed from 43 yards
Q2 11:49 · CAR 0-10 DEN

Broncos

Good plays

FUMBLE
N.Bonitto recovered a fumble at the DEN 44
Q4 1:24 · CAR 21-26 DEN
INTERCEPTION
D.Key picked off B.Young at the DEN 20
Q3 1:35 · CAR 14-13 DEN
TOUCHDOWN
B.Nix to P.Bryant, 26 yards
Q4 5:41 · CAR 14-26 DEN

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
B.Nix picked off by C.Thornton at the CAR 14
Q2 7:38 · CAR 0-10 DEN

📊The numbers

CAR		DEN
353	Total yards	312
5.7	Yards per play	4.8
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.02
257	Passing yards	230
96	Rushing yards	82
28	First downs	27
30%	Third downs converted	60%
75%	Red zone trips scored	50%
8	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	1
119	Penalty yards	50
28:05	Time with the ball	31:55

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Broncos should be in front early, expect Panthers to come at them late

PanthersBroncos⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 0-10

Half

9-13

Actual 7-13

14-17

Actual 14-13

Final

20-25

Actual 21-26

Broncos finish strong, 35% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Panthers

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Broncos

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

CAR

DEN

CAR

DEN

CAR

DEN

CAR

DEN

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored21.422.41928

Per playPoorFairBadGood

Yards a play5.44.84.25.3

Passing yards264178209222

Rushing yards10499.68277

Big plays5.63.826

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed26.219.02724

Per playPoorGoodBadBad

Takeaways0.81.230

Sacks1.23.002

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.40.420

Sacks allowed3.81.061

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards73.857.04145

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ PanthersBroncos ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Panthers

Broncos

Record3-46-2

Conference9 in NFC3 in AFC

Pts for / game25.421.5

Pts against / game27.620.6

Division1-12-1

Starting QBBryce YoungBo Nix

DEN v KC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	6-6	4-5	7-6
Happened	3-7	10-10	0-7	15-0

DEN v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	7-5	6-5	8-5
Happened	6-0	7-6	14-7	3-3

DEN		ARI
381	Total yards	366
6.8	Yards per play	4.9
+0.19	Points added per play	-0.11
16	First downs	18
7	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
114	Penalty yards	59

DEN v SEA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	6-5	5-7	9-5
Happened	0-3	14-0	0-0	0-11

DEN v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	6-6	5-5	8-4
Happened	7-0	3-3	0-14	13-0

The Broncos got lucky

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Broncos

Panthers

Public Opinion

DEN		KC
299	Total yards	411
5.3	Yards per play	6.1
+0.11	Points added per play	+0.16
16	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	2
45	Penalty yards	105

DEN		SEA
181	Total yards	391
3.2	Yards per play	4.8
-0.14	Points added per play	-0.09
11	First downs	23
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	5
42	Penalty yards	75

DEN		LAC
229	Total yards	276
4.0	Yards per play	4.4
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.30
12	First downs	12
3	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	5
40	Penalty yards	93

DEN		SF
296	Total yards	358
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
+0.09	Points added per play	+0.12
16	First downs	19
2	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	0
44	Penalty yards	5

CAR		GB
291	Total yards	354
4.2	Yards per play	5.3
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.12
14	First downs	19
2	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	3
6	Sacks taken	0
41	Penalty yards	45

CAR		PHI
407	Total yards	250
5.5	Yards per play	4.1
+0.04	Points added per play	-0.17
20	First downs	14
7	Big plays	0
0	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
149	Penalty yards	84

CAR		DET
456	Total yards	458
6.3	Yards per play	6.7
+0.24	Points added per play	+0.18
27	First downs	22
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	1
60	Penalty yards	67

CAR		CLE
389	Total yards	276
5.3	Yards per play	4.4
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.02
21	First downs	14
7	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	2
63	Penalty yards	84

CAR v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-7	6-7	6-4	5-6
Happened	0-0	3-10	6-0	9-11