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English Premier League Ā· Matchday 2

Leeds United

7th Ā· 2-3-1

1-1

Brentford

6th Ā· 2-4-0

Line-ball

Brentford too close to call

  • Our ratings have them 4th in the league, Leeds United 9th.
  • Unbeaten in their last 6 games.
  • The 4th-best attack in the league - 12 goals in 6 games.
  • Leeds United are missing Wilfried Gnonto and Mateo Joseph among 3 absentees.
  • Unlucky in front of goal - scoring well below what their chances deserve.
  • Scored in every one of their last 6 games.

šŸ’¬ Our read

Brentford are the better side on paper, rated 4th in the league versus Leeds' 9th place, and that gap showed last season when they finished 5 places clear. However, this is a tight match because Leeds have a genuine home advantage and have been strong at their place this term. The key angle is Brentford's recent bad luck in front of goal - they're creating the right chances but the finishing hasn't matched the quality of play, so when it clicks they could run riot. Watch whether Leeds' home form can paper over the cracks against a side that's simply more balanced in attack and defence.

What's driving the pick

ā±ļø

How the goals should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

Leeds UnitedBrentford
LEEBREHT0-1FT1-10'
  • Brentford score more of their goals before half-time than most sides

Our goals call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

Momentum Meter

50 = league average

Leeds United

Last season38 games
Season1 game
Last 51 game
Last gamemost recent

Brentford

Last season38 games
Season1 game
Last 51 game
Last gamemost recent

āš–ļøHow the result shapes up

Leeds UnitedDrawBrentford

Relative likelihood of each result - home win, draw, away win. Wider = more likely. Never shown as a price.

Likely scorelines

Most likely

1-1

Draw

12%

1-2

Brentford

9%

2-1

Leeds United

8%

The exact scores our numbers rate most likely, across all three results, with the chance of each. A match can land on dozens of scores, so even the leader is usually around one in eight, and it can be a draw score while we are on one side to win. Treat these as the shape of the game rather than a promise.

šŸ§®Factor breakdown

How far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - team ratings, scoring rates, home and away splits, recent form, rest and home advantage.

ā—€ Leeds UnitedBrentford ā–¶
Overall rating
Attack vs defence
Home/away form
Recent form
Rest & schedule
Home advantage

Bars show how far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - built from team ratings, season scoring rates, home/away splits, recent form, rest days and home advantage. The final call is also cross-checked against market expectations where available.

Not available for this game: market odds, home/away splits.

šŸ†Season form guide

Leeds United
Brentford
Position76
W-D-L2-3-12-4-0
Points910
Goals for / game1.32.0
Goals against / game0.81.0
Last 5ā€“ā€“

Predictions are statistical estimates built from public match data, cross-checked against market expectations where available - for information only, not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.