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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Week 2M&T Bank Stadium· Fine
Ravens
1-0
vMon, 21 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Saints
0-1
Our PickSlight Lean
Ravens to win
Margin6Total48 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
33 votesWinner
Ravens
76% agree
Line
By 6+
67% more
Total
48 pts
68% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Baltimore's the clear pick here. Lamar Jackson's a different proposition to Tyler Shough, they're playing at home where they've got a genuine edge, and their defence is tighter than New Orleans'. The Ravens also have a habit of winning decisively when they get it right, averaging a 16-point margin in wins. New Orleans has been a tough road team and is struggling to put points on the board, averaging just 18 a game last season. Watch the weather though - showers at kickoff could neutralise some of Baltimore's superiority and keep this closer than you'd expect.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usRavens 78%22%
Baltimore's run game feasting again is the loudest angle in the room, with New Orleans' defense already exposed up front. That ground-and-pound mismatch is exactly why we like the Ravens to control this one.
The room is leaning hard the same way we are, and the run game mismatch is the obvious reason why.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup16 mentions
The recurring take is that Baltimore's run game, fresh off gashing the Colts, sets up an even bigger mismatch against a Saints defense that already got run over in week one.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
That run game mismatch is baked into why we like the Ravens edge up front in the first place.
Fitness12 mentions
There's real uncertainty in the discussion about whether Zay Flowers can go again so soon after his hamstring scare, and how much that blunts Baltimore's passing attack.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
If Flowers can't go or is limited, Baltimore leans even harder on the run and that changes how comfortable this actually plays out.
Form15 mentions
A lot of the chatter credits Tyler Shough's wild comeback for building genuine belief among Saints fans, even as people note New Orleans has a habit of starting flat.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We see New Orleans' road struggles and one-score history as the bigger truth here, not one gutsy comeback papering over a team that starts slow.
Coach6 mentions
Several previews argue Baltimore's defense under new coordinator Jesse Minter is still finding its feet and could get better as the season rolls on, which cuts both ways for how safe this game really is.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
A defense still figuring itself out under a new coordinator is exactly the kind of unknown that could turn this into a shootout instead of the tidy win we have pencilled in.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ RavensSaints ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Ravens
💥
When they win, they win big - 16.1 points the average winning margin last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 7 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Saints
✈️
Poor travellers - just 3-6 on the road last season.
😬
Live in one-score games - 8 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
🥶
Stalling on offence - only 18 points a game last season.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A season figure marked with a year is last year's, until that side has three games on the board this one. The last 5 and last game always run back from its most recent outing, whichever season that fell in.
⚡
Momentum
Ravens
2025 season17 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Saints
2025 season17 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Coltsv
LionsPassing yards Up 127 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Up 0.19 on their last 5 average
Sacks Down 3 on their last 5 average
Giveaways Up 2 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Ravens+0.05’25+0.21+0.27Saints-0.07’25+0.08-0.03
Defence EPA / play allowed
Ravens+0.01’25-0.03-0.14Saints-0.07’25-0.12+0.07
Yards per play
Ravens6.2’257.38.2Saints5.3’256.25.8
Passing yards
Ravens192.8’25197.0324Saints236.9’25324.0410
Rushing yards
Ravens156.6’25201.2202Saints94.3’2593.491
Explosive plays
Ravens6.7’257.69Saints3.9’255.48
Giveaways
Ravens1.4’251.01Saints1.4’251.43
Takeaways
Ravens1.2’251.62Saints1.2’251.21
Sacks
Ravens1.8’252.62Saints2.6’253.61
Sacks allowed
Ravens2.6’252.22Saints2.9’253.85
Penalty yards
Ravens43.9’2549.486Saints54.1’2557.053
Points scored
Ravens24.9’2530.841Saints18.0’2526.030
Points allowed
Ravens23.4’2520.223Saints22.5’2519.831
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Zay Flowers (WR) (Ravens) out - hamstring
Nnamdi Madubuike (LDE) (Ravens) out - neck (surgery)
Teddye Buchanan (RILB) (Ravens) out - knee - acl (surgery)
Zach Wood (LS) (Saints) out - calf (strain) · IR
Season form guide
RavensvsSaints
1-0Record0-1
3 in AFCConference9 in NFC
41.0Pts for /game30.0
23.0Pts against /game31.0
0-0Division0-0
Lamar JacksonStarting QBTyler Shough
7 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.