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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Week 2Gillette Stadium· Rain
Patriots
0-1
vMon, 21 Sept, 3:00 am AEST
Steelers
1-0
Our PickSlight Lean
Patriots to win
Margin4Total42 pts🌧 lean under
🗳Do You Agree?
34 votesWinner
Patriots
62% agree
Line
By 4+
56% more
Total
42 pts
50% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
The Patriots are the play here at home with Drake Maye's offence clicking at 28.8 points a game against a defence giving up just 18.8, and they've had extra rest while Pittsburgh's on a short week. The real wildcard is Aaron Rodgers in the Steelers' backfield - he's a future Hall of Famer who can shred any secondary on any given Sunday, so watch whether New England's secondary can keep him off rhythm early, because both these teams live in one-score games and Rodgers always has one drive left in the chamber.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usPatriots 68%32%
Patriots look the sharper side at home off the extra rest, but Pittsburgh's habit of living in one-score games keeps this from feeling settled.
The room is with us on the Patriots side, and the same threads we weighed, Steelers takeaways and tight finishes, are exactly why we kept this a lean call rather than a big one. For Pittsburgh to turn it over, their pass rush needs to rattle Maye into the kind of mistakes that decided this fixture last year.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Form20 mentions
Most writers think Maye bounces back strongly after a poor opener, though a few voices argue his turnover issues could resurface against a hungry Pittsburgh pass rush.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
How Maye responds under pressure is genuinely something we cannot know until kickoff, and it is a real swing factor either way.
Talk9 mentions
There is a running joke and genuine worry in Patriots circles about the club's dreadful record in home games during the first month of the season for years running.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We are not leaning on old September home slumps, this year's roster and rest edge matter more to us than a dusty trend.
Matchup12 mentions
A lot of the debate centres on turnovers, with people split on whether the Steelers' pass rush and takeaway habit can once again decide this exact fixture the way it did last year.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
The Steelers' knack for takeaways and close finishes is exactly why our margin is a lean 4 and not something bigger.
Rivalry9 mentions
Fans keep bringing up that Pittsburgh won this same early-season meeting last year and dropped the Patriots to a rocky start, and there is a clear appetite for payback this time.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
Revenge storylines do not move our call, we are going off current form and matchup edges, not what happened last September.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ PatriotsSteelers ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Patriots
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 18.8 points a game last season.
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 28.8 points a game last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
🏆
Finished last season 1st in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 11 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Steelers
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A season figure marked with a year is last year's, until that side has three games on the board this one. The last 5 and last game always run back from its most recent outing, whichever season that fell in.
⚡
Momentum
Patriots
2025 season21 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Steelers
2025 season18 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Seahawksv
FalconsDefence EPA / play allowed Up 0.26 on their last 5 average
Takeaways Down 2 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Down 0.28 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Patriots+0.09’25-0.18-0.11Steelers-0.01’25-0.13-0.24
Defence EPA / play allowed
Patriots-0.08’25-0.19+0.06Steelers+0.02’25-0.04-0.32
Yards per play
Patriots6.1’254.94.3Steelers5.3’255.04.4
Passing yards
Patriots251.8’25201.2178Steelers210.0’25219.4221
Rushing yards
Patriots126.8’25116.0109Steelers101.1’25116.458
Explosive plays
Patriots7.0’255.63Steelers5.0’256.04
Giveaways
Patriots1.1’252.23Steelers0.9’250.81
Takeaways
Patriots1.3’251.60Steelers1.7’251.62
Sacks
Patriots2.2’253.02Steelers2.8’253.04
Sacks allowed
Patriots3.3’254.83Steelers1.9’252.42
Penalty yards
Patriots46.0’2532.650Steelers45.9’2548.852
Points scored
Patriots26.5’2515.410Steelers22.4’2517.420
Points allowed
Patriots17.9’2513.613Steelers23.2’2520.813
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Carlton Davis III (LCB) (Patriots) out - neck
Joey Porter Jr. (LCB) (Steelers) out - back
Season form guide
PatriotsvsSteelers
0-1Record1-0
9 in AFCConference6 in AFC
10.0Pts for /game20.0
13.0Pts against /game13.0
0-0Division0-0
Drake MayeStarting QBAaron Rodgers
11 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.