Bengals at Dolphins - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

MIACINWhat happenedWhat we expected (MIA 20, CIN 25)What the play deserved

The Bengals got 14 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ MIA better than we expected

0Q17-7

-15Q20-14

+2Q33-7

+10Q414-3

▼ CIN better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 15 points worse than our numbers for the Dolphins.

Every score

Q1 14:03TDJ.Burrow to M.Gesicki, 4 yards0-7
Q1 8:02TDO.Gordon from the 17-7
Q2 11:51TDJ.Burrow to S.Perine, 6 yards7-14
Q2 0:55TDJ.Burrow to T.Hudson, 2 yards7-21
Q3 5:13FGR.Patterson from 29 yards10-21
Q3 0:39TDJ.Burrow to J.Chase, 45 yards10-28
Q4 7:13TDDolphins ran it in from 3 yards18-28
Q4 2:09FGE.McPherson from 26 yards18-31
Q4 0:45TDDolphins from the 124-31

⚖️What decided it

Why the Bengals won, and why the Dolphins did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away three times and gave it up once
Got to the quarterback three times and gave up no sacks
Lost the ground game, 117 rushing yards to 217

Key battles

12Big plays4

3Sacks taken0

217Rushing yards117

114Passing yards190

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Dolphins

Good plays

3RD DOWN
M.Willis for 39 yards on 3rd & 13
Q4 14:28 · MIA 10-28 CIN
TOUCHDOWN
Dolphins, 3 yards
Q4 7:13 · MIA 18-28 CIN
3RD DOWN
O.Gordon for 22 yards on 3rd & 10
Q1 12:35 · MIA 0-7 CIN

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the MIA 10
Q4 2:34 · MIA 18-28 CIN
INTERCEPTION
M.Willis picked off by J.Battle at the CIN 49
Q2 10:32 · MIA 7-14 CIN
SACK
M.Willis sacked on 2nd & 10
Q3 14:14 · MIA 7-21 CIN

Bengals

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Burrow to J.Chase, 45 yards
Q3 0:39 · MIA 10-28 CIN
FUMBLE
J.Allen recovered a fumble at the MIA 10
Q4 2:34 · MIA 18-28 CIN
INTERCEPTION
J.Battle picked off M.Willis at the CIN 49
Q2 10:32 · MIA 7-14 CIN

Bad plays

PENALTY
Unnecessary roughness on D.Lawrence, 6 yards
Q1 9:48 · MIA 0-7 CIN

📊The numbers

MIA		CIN
331	Total yards	307
5.2	Yards per play	4.9
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.20
114	Passing yards	190
217	Rushing yards	117
23	First downs	22
54%	Third downs converted	69%
75%	Red zone trips scored	60%
12	Big plays	4
3	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	0
30	Penalty yards	39
28:20	Time with the ball	31:40

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Expect it tight at the break, Bengals should pull clear after half-time

DolphinsBengals⭐Actual

6-6

Actual 7-7

Half

12-10

Actual 7-21

14-20

Actual 10-28

Final

20-25

Actual 24-31

Dolphins score 57% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Dolphins

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Bengals

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

MIA

CIN

MIA

CIN

MIA

CIN

MIA

CIN

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored11.223.01017

Per playBadGoodBadGood

Yards a play5.15.95.66.4

Passing yards17028185428

Rushing yards95.887.812123

Big plays4.65.433

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed27.821.01522

Per playBadFairGreatBad

Takeaways0.61.200

Sacks0.84.044

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.41.412

Sacks allowed3.02.222

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards56.462.655108

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ DolphinsBengals ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Dolphins

Bengals

Record0-42-2

Conference16 in AFC7 in AFC

Pts for / game11.524.3

Pts against / game25.321.3

Division0-00-1

Starting QBMalik WillisJoe Burrow

CIN v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-9	5-5	6-5
Happened	0-3	3-10	7-3	7-6

CIN v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	9-9	6-4	5-9
Happened	0-0	7-3	10-3	3-0

CIN v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	9-7	5-5	6-7
Happened	14-3	10-7	3-10	6-7

MIA v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	6-6	2-7	4-7
Happened	0-3	0-6	10-3	0-3

MIA v KC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	7-5	2-9	7-6
Happened	7-7	0-7	3-0	0-10

A deserved win for the Bengals

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Bengals

Dolphins

Public Opinion

CIN		JAX
451	Total yards	338
6.4	Yards per play	6.3
+0.05	Points added per play	+0.19
23	First downs	16
3	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
108	Penalty yards	125

CIN		PIT
365	Total yards	430
6.5	Yards per play	7.3
+0.28	Points added per play	+0.16
19	First downs	20
6	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
40	Penalty yards	37

CIN		HOU
292	Total yards	413
4.9	Yards per play	5.3
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.25
12	First downs	18
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	4
78	Penalty yards	83

CIN		TB
360	Total yards	305
5.7	Yards per play	5.9
-0.05	Points added per play	-0.13
24	First downs	17
7	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	4
1	Sacks taken	4
47	Penalty yards	39

MIA		MIN
206	Total yards	370
5.6	Yards per play	5.1
-0.20	Points added per play	-0.12
7	First downs	19
3	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	85

MIA		KC
329	Total yards	334
4.9	Yards per play	6.8
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.14
16	First downs	16
7	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
64	Penalty yards	50

MIA		SF
299	Total yards	382
5.3	Yards per play	7.8
-0.00	Points added per play	+0.44
12	First downs	22
3	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	78

MIA		LV
294	Total yards	290
5.9	Yards per play	4.3
-0.16	Points added per play	-0.07
11	First downs	19
7	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	0
61	Penalty yards	29

MIA v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	7-4	2-5	7-8
Happened	0-7	6-10	7-10	0-0