Packers at Lions - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

DETGBWhat happenedWhat we expected (DET 27, GB 23)What the play deserved

The Lions stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game.

Where it moved

▲ DET better than we expected

+2Q17-7

0Q23-0

+2Q37-7

-4Q43-3

▼ GB better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 4 points worse than our numbers for the Lions.

Every score

Q1 7:00TDJ.Goff to J.Williams, 16 yards7-0
Q1 0:58TDJ.Love to T.Kraft, 14 yards7-7
Q2 12:36FGJ.Bates from 40 yards10-7
Q3 12:14TDJ.Love to J.Jacobs, 25 yards10-14
Q3 6:33TDJ.Goff to J.Williams, 10 yards17-14
Q4 7:10FGT.Smack from 43 yards17-17
Q4 0:00FGJ.Bates from 22 yards20-17

⚖️What decided it

Why the Lions won, and why the Packers did not.

From the game

Held firm near the line, they got one touchdown from four trips inside the 20

Key battles

119Rushing yards60

40%Red zone trips scored25%

50Penalty yards81

50%Third downs converted33%

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Lions

Good plays

BLOCKED
Blocked a field goal try from the DET 17
Q4 3:25 · DET 17-17 GB
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 4 at the DET 7
Q2 4:20 · DET 10-7 GB
BIG PLAY
J.Goff to A.St for 40 yards
Q1 0:53 · DET 7-7 GB

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the DET 24
Q4 4:53 · DET 17-17 GB
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the DET 42
Q3 14:16 · DET 10-7 GB
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the GB 8
Q2 0:30 · DET 10-7 GB

Packers

Good plays

4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the DET 24
Q4 4:53 · DET 17-17 GB
FUMBLE
I.McDuffie recovered a fumble at the DET 42
Q3 14:16 · DET 10-7 GB
TOUCHDOWN
J.Love to J.Jacobs, 25 yards
Q3 12:14 · DET 10-14 GB

Bad plays

BLOCKED
Field goal try blocked
Q4 3:25 · DET 17-17 GB
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 4 at the DET 7
Q2 4:20 · DET 10-7 GB
MISSED FG
T.Smack missed from 26 yards
Q1 10:26 · DET 0-0 GB

📊The numbers

DET		GB
415	Total yards	324
6.3	Yards per play	5.0
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.04
296	Passing yards	264
119	Rushing yards	60
26	First downs	17
50%	Third downs converted	33%
40%	Red zone trips scored	25%
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	1
50	Penalty yards	81
30:01	Time with the ball	29:59

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Expect it tight at the break, Lions should pull clear after half-time

Lions⭐PackersActual

3-6

Actual 7-7

Half

12-10

Actual 10-7

16-17

Actual 17-14

Final

27-23

Actual 20-17

Packers score 56% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Lions

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Packers

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

DET

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored32.821.04523

Per playGreatFairGreatFair

Yards a play6.25.36.74.8

Passing yards297259271276

Rushing yards11458.616357

Big plays7.04.8106

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed29.617.22113

Per playBadGoodFairGreat

Takeaways1.02.012

Sacks4.02.451

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.21.001

Sacks allowed2.21.833

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards51.673.43196

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ LionsPackers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Lions

Packers

Record3-24-2

Conference6 in NFC4 in NFC

Pts for / game32.821.2

Pts against / game29.620.8

Division0-01-1

Starting QBJared GoffJordan Love

DET v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-5	6-6	7-7
Happened	0-7	24-0	14-7	7-7

DET v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-6	4-7	9-7
Happened	3-7	13-9	3-13	7-3

DET v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	11-5	5-5	8-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-3	14-14

DET v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	11-7	2-7	7-11
Happened	0-14	10-13	7-7	14-7

DET v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	11-6	3-5	6-8
Happened	7-0	0-0	14-14	3-10

The Lions got lucky

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Lions

Packers

Public Opinion

DET		ARI
434	Total yards	355
6.7	Yards per play	5.0
+0.33	Points added per play	+0.02
22	First downs	19
10	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	5
31	Penalty yards	45

DET		CAR
458	Total yards	456
6.7	Yards per play	6.3
+0.18	Points added per play	+0.24
22	First downs	27
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
67	Penalty yards	60

DET		NYJ
400	Total yards	379
6.3	Yards per play	6.2
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.10
23	First downs	21
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	5
41	Penalty yards	30

DET		BUF
393	Total yards	451
6.3	Yards per play	6.5
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.36
21	First downs	29
7	Big plays	12
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	2
58	Penalty yards	46

DET		NO
371	Total yards	501
5.1	Yards per play	5.8
+0.07	Points added per play	-0.03
24	First downs	26
8	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	5
61	Penalty yards	53

GB		DAL
333	Total yards	306
4.8	Yards per play	4.4
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.13
17	First downs	20
6	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	1
96	Penalty yards	108

GB		CHI
437	Total yards	276
7.4	Yards per play	4.1
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.26
18	First downs	16
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	20

GB		ATL
329	Total yards	498
5.2	Yards per play	7.5
+0.01	Points added per play	+0.33
16	First downs	23
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
45	Penalty yards	83

GB		NYJ
208	Total yards	314
4.2	Yards per play	4.4
-0.22	Points added per play	-0.10
12	First downs	17
3	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	4
133	Penalty yards	156