Rams at Raiders - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

LVLARWhat happenedWhat we expected (LV 22, LAR 26)What the play deserved

The Rams got 20 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ LV better than we expected

-2Q13-7

-18Q23-21

0Q30-0

+9Q415-7

▼ LAR better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 18 points worse than our numbers for the Raiders.

Every score

Q1 6:25TDM.Stafford to D.Allen, 3 yards0-7
Q1 0:51FGM.Gay from 30 yards3-7
Q2 10:01TDM.Stafford to D.Allen, 5 yards3-14
Q2 4:15TDM.Stafford to P.Nacua, 11 yards3-21
Q2 1:19TDK.Williams ran it in from 17 yards3-28
Q2 0:00FGM.Gay from 27 yards6-28
Q4 14:51TDK.Cousins to T.Tucker, 37 yards12-28
Q4 13:12TDK.Cousins to A.Jeanty, 15 yards18-28
Q4 6:34TDB.Corum ran it in from 4 yards18-35
Q4 4:11FGM.Gay from 36 yards21-35

⚖️What decided it

Why the Rams won, and why the Raiders did not.

From the game

Won the ground game, 199 rushing yards to 48
Held firm near the line, they got one touchdown from five trips inside the 20
Kept drives alive, five of ten on third down to three of fourteen
Lost the turnovers, gave it up two times and never took it away
Flagged 7 times for 90 yards

Key battles

20%Red zone trips scored100%

48Rushing yards199

21%Third downs converted50%

0Turnovers2

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Raiders

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
N.Dean picked off M.Stafford at the LAR 34
Q4 14:44 · LV 12-28 LAR
TOUCHDOWN
K.Cousins to T.Tucker, 37 yards
Q4 14:51 · LV 12-28 LAR
3RD DOWN
K.Cousins to T.Tucker for 41 yards on 3rd & 4
Q3 1:22 · LV 6-28 LAR

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 2 at the LAR 13
Q3 8:43 · LV 6-28 LAR
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 3 at the LAR 48
Q2 2:00 · LV 3-21 LAR
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 5 at the LAR 25
Q3 7:08 · LV 6-28 LAR

Rams

Good plays

4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 2 at the LAR 13
Q3 8:43 · LV 6-28 LAR
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 3 at the LAR 48
Q2 2:00 · LV 3-21 LAR
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 5 at the LAR 25
Q3 7:08 · LV 6-28 LAR

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
M.Stafford picked off by N.Dean at the LAR 34
Q4 14:44 · LV 12-28 LAR
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the LAR 30
Q3 8:39 · LV 6-28 LAR
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on J.Wallace, 39 yards
Q1 11:44 · LV 0-0 LAR

📊The numbers

LV		LAR
350	Total yards	386
5.5	Yards per play	5.7
-0.17	Points added per play	+0.12
302	Passing yards	187
48	Rushing yards	199
18	First downs	28
21%	Third downs converted	50%
20%	Red zone trips scored	100%
4	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	1
64	Penalty yards	90
25:46	Time with the ball	34:14

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Rams should be in front early, expect Raiders to come at them late

RaidersRams⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 3-7

Half

10-12

Actual 6-28

15-18

Actual 6-28

Final

22-26

Actual 21-35

Rams finish strong, 35% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Raiders

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Rams

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

LAR

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored27.025.63016

Per playFairGoodGoodPoor

Yards a play5.76.36.25.6

Passing yards294328313222

Rushing yards69.01116592

Big plays5.26.663

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed29.822.23318

Per playPoorGoodBadFair

Takeaways1.61.001

Sacks2.01.620

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.411

Sacks allowed1.62.003

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards50.871.26231

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ RaidersRams ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Raiders

Rams

Record3-32-4

Conference10 in AFC9 in NFC

Pts for / game27.022.5

Pts against / game27.023.0

Division1-10-2

Starting QBKirk CousinsMatthew Stafford

LAR v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	9-6	8-5	8-5
Happened	3-3	6-6	0-3	7-6

LAR v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	8-9	4-5	8-7
Happened	0-6	7-7	7-6	20-15

LAR v PHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	5-7	4-5	8-6
Happened	3-3	7-17	0-0	14-0

LAR v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	6-7	7-5	5-5
Happened	7-0	9-0	0-16	10-14

LAR v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	10-7	5-4	7-6
Happened	7-0	7-3	7-3	7-0

A deserved win for the Rams

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form supports the Rams

Rams

Raiders

Public Opinion

LAR		ARI
314	Total yards	338
5.6	Yards per play	4.8
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.02
16	First downs	20
3	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	0
31	Penalty yards	51

LAR		BUF
460	Total yards	444
5.9	Yards per play	7.8
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.30
29	First downs	21
7	Big plays	13
0	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
84	Penalty yards	112

LAR		PHI
423	Total yards	197
5.5	Yards per play	3.4
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.29
23	First downs	10
4	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	4
100	Penalty yards	57

LAR		DEN
506	Total yards	264
6.2	Yards per play	4.4
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.01
25	First downs	16
8	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	1
91	Penalty yards	38

LAR		NYG
490	Total yards	183
8.2	Yards per play	3.3
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.43
23	First downs	10
11	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	20

LV		BUF
378	Total yards	358
6.2	Yards per play	5.6
+0.10	Points added per play	+0.16
20	First downs	21
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
62	Penalty yards	77

LV		NE
329	Total yards	539
5.8	Yards per play	8.2
+0.08	Points added per play	+0.40
15	First downs	25
4	Big plays	12
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	1
101	Penalty yards	116

LV		KC
437	Total yards	414
5.6	Yards per play	7.1
+0.05	Points added per play	+0.13
24	First downs	17
8	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
30	Penalty yards	59

LV		NO
361	Total yards	403
5.7	Yards per play	5.6
+0.07	Points added per play	-0.02
20	First downs	26
4	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	4
3	Sacks taken	2
19	Penalty yards	36

LV		LAC
310	Total yards	319
5.2	Yards per play	5.1
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.26
13	First downs	15
4	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	3
42	Penalty yards	45

LV v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-6	7-9	4-6	9-8
Happened	7-3	6-10	0-10	17-10

LV v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-6	7-7	3-6	7-6
Happened	7-14	0-7	3-14	7-10

LV v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	7-6	4-7	5-8
Happened	3-6	13-7	6-14	13-0