Browns at Saints - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

NOCLEWhat happenedWhat we expected (NO 23, CLE 18)What the play deserved

The Saints stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game.

Where it moved

▲ NO better than we expected

+4Q13-0

-4Q20-3

-3Q33-3

-2Q410-10

▼ CLE better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 4 points worse than our numbers for the Saints.

Every score

Q1 7:20FGC.Smyth from 30 yards3-0
Q2 10:30FGA.Szmyt from 41 yards3-3
Q3 9:01FGA.Szmyt from 30 yards3-6
Q3 2:26FGC.Smyth from 27 yards6-6
Q4 5:38FGC.Smyth from 48 yards9-6
Q4 5:21TDS.Sanders to K.Concepcion, 64 yards9-13
Q4 0:58TDA.Estime ran it in from 2 yards16-13
Q4 0:08FGA.Szmyt from 51 yards16-16
OT 4:17TDT.Shough to J.Johnson, 15 yards23-16
OT 1:00TDBrowns ran it in from 39 yards23-22

⚖️What decided it

Why the Saints won, and why the Browns did not.

From the game

The Browns started Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, not Deshaun Watson
Sacked five times
Lost the turnovers, gave it up two times and never took it away
Sacked five times

Key battles

40%Red zone trips scored0%

25Penalty yards58

2Turnovers0

160Rushing yards95

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Saints

Good plays

BIG PLAY
T.Shough to B.Brown for 52 yards
Q2 9:41 · NO 3-3 CLE
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 2 at the NO 42
Q4 10:39 · NO 6-6 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
T.Shough to J.Johnson, 15 yards
OT 4:17 · NO 23-16 CLE

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CLE 1
Q2 8:11 · NO 3-3 CLE
SACK
T.Shough sacked on 3rd & 5
Q1 0:51 · NO 3-0 CLE
SACK
T.Shough sacked on 2nd & 10
Q4 7:08 · NO 6-6 CLE

Browns

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
S.Sanders to K.Concepcion, 64 yards
Q4 5:21 · NO 9-13 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
Browns, 39 yards
OT 1:00 · NO 23-22 CLE
BIG PLAY
S.Sanders to D.Boston for 60 yards
Q3 11:15 · NO 3-3 CLE

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 2 at the NO 42
Q4 10:39 · NO 6-6 CLE
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the NO 1
Q2 1:42 · NO 3-3 CLE
SACK
S.Sanders sacked on 2nd & 5
Q3 9:52 · NO 3-3 CLE

📊The numbers

NO		CLE
396	Total yards	355
5.5	Yards per play	5.1
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.11
236	Passing yards	260
160	Rushing yards	95
21	First downs	15
44%	Third downs converted	44%
40%	Red zone trips scored	0%
7	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	5
25	Penalty yards	58
34:51	Time with the ball	34:09

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Expect it tight at the break, Saints should pull clear after half-time

Saints⭐BrownsActual

3-6

Actual 3-0

Half

10-10

Actual 3-3

16-12

Actual 6-6

Final

23-18

Actual 16-16

Saints score 61% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Saints

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Browns

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

CLE

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored21.617.0106

Per playPoorPoorGoodBad

Yards a play4.85.55.25.6

Passing yards212244278326

Rushing yards89.21041834

Big plays3.25.624

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed29.220.41627

Per playPoorFairPoorBad

Takeaways1.41.601

Sacks2.82.831

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.01.612

Sacks allowed1.44.828

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards43.459.23985

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ SaintsBrowns ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Saints

Browns

Record2-55-3

Conference15 in NFC8 in AFC

Pts for / game23.117.4

Pts against / game27.721.6

Division0-12-1

Starting QBTyler ShoughShedeur Sanders

NO v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	7-7	6-6	7-6
Happened	0-7	10-3	17-0	7-17

NO v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-7	5-7	5-5	6-7
Happened	0-3	7-3	6-7	0-10

NO v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	5-8	8-4	8-5
Happened	0-14	7-10	3-7	14-14

NO v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	6-7	7-4	8-5
Happened	6-3	7-13	14-6	0-13

CLE v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	6-6	2-3	7-7
Happened	0-7	6-13	0-7	0-0

A deserved win for the Saints

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form is a warning sign for the Saints

Saints

Browns

Public Opinion

NO		PIT
296	Total yards	360
5.2	Yards per play	5.7
+0.06	Points added per play	+0.05
18	First downs	19
2	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
39	Penalty yards	57

NO		NYG
319	Total yards	479
4.7	Yards per play	6.7
-0.03	Points added per play	-0.08
16	First downs	21
7	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	4
0	Sacks taken	5
52	Penalty yards	73

NO		MIN
151	Total yards	382
3.5	Yards per play	5.6
-0.35	Points added per play	+0.02
9	First downs	18
0	Big plays	7
3	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	2
41	Penalty yards	30

NO		ATL
336	Total yards	428
4.9	Yards per play	7.6
-0.07	Points added per play	+0.41
19	First downs	22
3	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
49	Penalty yards	70

NO		LV
403	Total yards	361
5.6	Yards per play	5.7
-0.02	Points added per play	+0.07
26	First downs	20
4	Big plays	4
4	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
36	Penalty yards	19

CLE		PIT
360	Total yards	372
5.6	Yards per play	6.3
-0.23	Points added per play	+0.12
15	First downs	20
4	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	1
8	Sacks taken	1
85	Penalty yards	47

CLE		TEN
491	Total yards	322
7.4	Yards per play	5.2
+0.18	Points added per play	+0.03
25	First downs	16
11	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
48	Penalty yards	35

CLE		BAL
257	Total yards	252
4.3	Yards per play	4.4
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.09
12	First downs	12
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	29

CLE		NYJ
251	Total yards	316
3.9	Yards per play	4.8
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.18
10	First downs	14
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
8	Sacks taken	4
30	Penalty yards	102

CLE		PIT
380	Total yards	391
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.10	Points added per play	+0.07
20	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	5
88	Penalty yards	50