Lions at Dolphins - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

MIADETWhat happenedWhat we expected (MIA 21, DET 28)What the play deserved

The Lions stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ MIA better than we expected

-1Q13-3

0Q20-3

-1Q33-10

-1Q43-3

▼ DET better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 1 point worse than our numbers for the Dolphins.

Every score

Q1 8:22FGJ.Bates from 28 yards0-3
Q1 1:02FGZ.Gonzalez from 34 yards3-3
Q2 3:30FGJ.Bates from 40 yards3-6
Q3 9:14FGJ.Bates from 33 yards3-9
Q3 4:00FGZ.Gonzalez from 52 yards6-9
Q3 1:20TDJ.Gibbs ran it in from 8 yards6-16
Q4 9:26FGZ.Gonzalez from 34 yards9-16
Q4 4:28FGJ.Bates from 43 yards9-19

⚖️What decided it

Why the Lions won, and why the Dolphins did not.

From the game

Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from three trips inside the 20
Stalled near the line, one touchdown from four trips inside the 20

Key battles

0%Red zone trips scored25%

87Penalty yards63

33%Third downs converted25%

77Rushing yards102

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Dolphins

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
C.Johnson picked off J.Goff at the DET 39
Q1 5:14 · MIA 0-3 DET
4TH DOWN
B.Pinion to K.Allen for 46 yards on 4th & 3
Q4 14:55 · MIA 6-16 DET
3RD DOWN
M.Willis to C.Douglas for 12 yards on 3rd & 11
Q3 7:13 · MIA 3-9 DET

Bad plays

MISSED FG
Z.Gonzalez missed from 38 yards
Q2 0:03 · MIA 3-6 DET
INTERCEPTION
M.Willis picked off by C.Clark at the MIA 26
Q3 13:38 · MIA 3-6 DET
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on J.Marshall, 17 yards
Q4 8:04 · MIA 9-16 DET

Lions

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
C.Clark picked off M.Willis at the MIA 26
Q3 13:38 · MIA 3-6 DET
3RD DOWN
J.Goff to A.St for 17 yards on 3rd & 8
Q4 6:07 · MIA 9-16 DET
TOUCHDOWN
J.Gibbs, 8 yards
Q3 1:20 · MIA 6-16 DET

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Goff picked off by C.Johnson at the DET 39
Q1 5:14 · MIA 0-3 DET
SACK
J.Goff sacked on 3rd & 4
Q1 9:08 · MIA 0-0 DET

📊The numbers

MIA		DET
228	Total yards	270
4.6	Yards per play	4.7
-0.21	Points added per play	-0.06
151	Passing yards	168
77	Rushing yards	102
12	First downs	16
33%	Third downs converted	25%
0%	Red zone trips scored	25%
4	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	3
87	Penalty yards	63
28:45	Time with the ball	31:15

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Lions do their best work late, expect the gap to open up in the fourth quarter

DolphinsLions⭐Actual

6-3

Actual 3-3

Half

10-12

Actual 3-6

14-22

Actual 6-16

Final

21-28

Actual 9-19

Dolphins score 56% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Dolphins

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Lions

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

MIA

DET

MIA

DET

MIA

DET

MIA

DET

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored18.228.21919

Per playPoorGoodPoorPoor

Yards a play5.36.44.86.0

Passing yards170286211176

Rushing yards13713874230

Big plays6.47.6411

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed23.821.82415

Per playBadPoorBadGood

Takeaways0.80.811

Sacks1.83.433

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.40.611

Sacks allowed2.42.254

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards45.053.05076

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ DolphinsLions ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Dolphins

Lions

Record1-65-2

Conference14 in AFC4 in NFC

Pts for / game16.729.0

Pts against / game25.925.7

Division1-12-0

Starting QBMalik WillisJared Goff

DET v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	9-5	5-5	4-9
Happened	3-0	3-7	6-0	7-8

DET v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	9-6	4-6	11-7
Happened	7-7	3-0	7-7	3-3

DET v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-5	6-6	7-7
Happened	0-7	24-0	14-7	7-7

DET v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-6	4-7	9-7
Happened	3-7	13-9	3-13	7-3

DET v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	11-5	5-5	8-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-3	14-14

A deserved win for the Lions

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form is a warning sign for the Lions

Lions

Dolphins

Public Opinion

DET		MIN
406	Total yards	291
6.0	Yards per play	5.8
-0.07	Points added per play	-0.09
22	First downs	14
11	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
76	Penalty yards	40

DET		GB
422	Total yards	334
6.4	Yards per play	5.1
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.04
21	First downs	16
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	1
50	Penalty yards	81

DET		ARI
434	Total yards	355
6.7	Yards per play	5.0
+0.33	Points added per play	+0.02
22	First downs	19
10	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	5
31	Penalty yards	45

DET		CAR
458	Total yards	456
6.7	Yards per play	6.3
+0.18	Points added per play	+0.24
22	First downs	27
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
67	Penalty yards	60

DET		NYJ
400	Total yards	379
6.3	Yards per play	6.2
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.10
23	First downs	21
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	5
41	Penalty yards	30

MIA		NYJ
364	Total yards	395
5.7	Yards per play	7.5
+0.25	Points added per play	+0.27
22	First downs	16
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
26	Penalty yards	36

MIA		CIN
354	Total yards	307
5.5	Yards per play	4.9
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.20
21	First downs	21
12	Big plays	4
3	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	0
30	Penalty yards	39

MIA		MIN
206	Total yards	370
5.6	Yards per play	5.1
-0.20	Points added per play	-0.12
7	First downs	19
3	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	85

MIA		KC
329	Total yards	334
4.9	Yards per play	6.8
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.14
16	First downs	16
7	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
64	Penalty yards	50