Leeds United
2-2-0
Crystal Palace
1-0-3
Leeds United to win by the odd goal
Our ratings have them 9th in the league, Crystal Palace 16th.
Crystal Palace have lost 3 of their last 4.
Fast starters - ahead at half-time in 2 of their last 4 games.
Crystal Palace give away more good chances than most sides in the league.
How the result shapes up
Relative likelihood of each result - home win, draw, away win. Wider = more likely. Never shown as a price.
Likely scorelines
Most likely
1-1
Draw
10%
2-1
Leeds United
10%
2-0
Leeds United
9%
The exact scores our numbers rate most likely, across all three results, with the chance of each. Note how small even the leader is - a match can land on dozens of scores, so the top one is usually around one in eight. That is also why the leader here can be a draw score even when we are on one side to win, because a draw is one narrow cluster while a win is spread over several scores. Treat these as the shape of the game rather than a promise.
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Leeds United are the better side here, rated 9th against Palace's 16th, and they've got momentum with three goals conceded in four games and a habit of starting fast. Palace have lost three of their last four and consistently find themselves behind at half-time, which plays into Leeds' hands at home. The catch is both teams are underperforming in front of goal relative to their chances, which points to a tight game. Watch whether Leeds can convert their early pressure into a lead or whether Palace's underlying quality keeps them in it for a 1-1 type finish.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - built from team ratings, season scoring rates, home/away splits, recent form, rest days and home advantage. The final call is also cross-checked against market expectations where available.
Not available for this game: market odds, home/away splits.
Momentum Meter
50 = league averageLeeds United
Crystal Palace
Leeds United
Fast starters - ahead at half-time in 2 of their last 4 games.
Tight at the back - only 3 goals conceded in 4 games.
Crystal Palace
Unlucky in front of goal - scoring well below what their chances deserve.
Playing better than their results show - the table undersells them.
Slow starters - behind at half-time in 4 of their last 4 games.
Leaky at the back - 11 conceded in 4 games.
Their games are open - about 4.3 goals a game between the two sides.
Sit deep and defend in numbers, happy to let opponents have the ball.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public match data, cross-checked against market expectations where available - for information only, not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.